Actually, he was wrong on the cash balance. At the end of Q3 cash was over $500 million, and I am sure that they have collected some cash in the meantime, so XIN should still have about $400 million in cash for Q4 earnings reporting.
I am hoping that they use $10 million of that for additional buy backs, and $28 million for a $.10 quarterly dividend ($7 million a quarter). That would still give them over $350 million in 2012 to buy more land to build on.
However, it was a good, optimistic article, in favor of XIN.
This rally is technical IMO, XIN found support at long term lows at 1.55 and short-term lows twice at 1.70, so we are going to test upper resistance now. Seller exhaustion could be seen in the decreasing volume after failing to fall below these supports.
Also, re cash, they also are pulling in around $25-$30 million net income in Q4, so that should offset some of the recent outlays for land acquisitions.
Maybe XIN is getting a pop from that Seeking Alpha blogger.
Only problem is he mentions their cash and doesn't subtract
the two land purchases which total $125, which would leave
a cash balance, about equal to their debt, $300 million.
"Xinyuan Real Estate (XIN): Xinyuan Real Estate is a relatively less volatile stock with a beta of 0.55. The real estate company shows a black bottom line with profit margins of 15%. Recently the company, which focuses more on Tier II and Tier III cities in China, announced its acquisition of land in Xuzhou for approximately US$37 million, with a total area of 45,000 square meters. It is located in the same area as the company’s first project and is expected to perform equally well with high expected return on investment. Xinyuan will develop high-rise residential apartments on the property. By the end of last year, the company had completed 21 projects with a total gross floor area of approximately 2,049,460 square meters. The company is currently trading at a forward price to earnings ratio of 1.27x. The company had revenue of more than $600 million in the last 12 months and has a comfortable cash balance of more than $430 million. The price-to-earnings ratio is much below competitors such as Gafisa (GFA), a Brazilian-based company, which is trading at 7.99x and Kaufman & Broad, a France-based property developing company, which trades at 7.4x. The company’s current ratio of over 2x, combined with the high cash balance, places it in an ideal position to take advantage of cheap property options."