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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • acorisk acorisk Jun 7, 2012 8:17 AM Flag

    XIN - showing an ugly duckling is a swan - we can do it.

    Facts -- lots from lots of places... Would be great to stop the personal attacks and realize we have folks who are 1) working hard 2) in some cases, mine included - lost ALOT of money last year when the Chinese stock short attacks hit 3) Want to make some money now 4) Cautiously see real upside in XIN.

    Mixture of facts from w... s.... h... and others -- thanks to all for pulling together.

    Here's the fact that matters the most for me... CEO has been doing this for 15 years. started small, has expanded & has shown pretty consistent #'s in the process. This is "his baby" -- but his behavior is pretty consistent over lots of years -- not fly by night appearing.

    Listed below with comments -- Let's get the right story, right list of FAQa and concerns in 1 place -- Will then present to Gurnee to ask him to post on XIN site and to use as overt talking points....Let's get this baby to at least 1/2 book value by July 15 ($4.00) -- feel free to suggest a different goal - but needs to be quantifiabile and time limited.

    1. Pe of less than 2
    (Yes. Varies with price. very close to 2 at $3/share).
    2. Dividend yield of 5.6%
    (Yes. varies with price $5.3% at $3.00/share)
    3. Earnings growth in the past year of 100%
    -- IS THIS CORRECT FROM A CALENDAR YEAR BASIS? (or at least comparable quarter to same quarter following year basis) --- KEY part of Swan...
    4. Book value of $8
    5.Big loan at big rate ($40 million at 15% or so, due in 2013)
    Yes. Others in space in China had some expensive loans in 2010. no prepay option, but expires in 2013.
    6. CFO connected with other companies in China, some with Fraud, Some without.
    Yes. Gurnee was on the board (is still?) of Longtop. Longtop booked phantom revenue going back for lots of years. What did Gurnee know when? [ I spoke with Gurnee, I'm paraphrasing and remembering, but the gist was the CEO in the earlier phases had phantom revenue for lots of years (even though the company had real clients and real growth and real cash) that "hyped the story" -- In U.S. we call that Fraud. Gurnee was surprised to find out the reality when it emerged. Gurnee is on another board of stock [? Name] that has a higher multiple, one that doesn't suggest fraud and/or concern in a way comparable to XIN valuation. There is a seeking alpha article by Harvard Investment Club and message threads documenting this.

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    • I like this idea. My ideas are still a bit rough, but like you, I think we should somehow organize the information we already know. Some topics are bound to come up repeatedly, like "Reasons the market is suspicious of XIN" or "Generic Chinese Investment Risks (FIVE)", or "Actions XIN Can Take Now to Boost Share Price," and it'd be nice to just be able to post a link rather than always having to retype it all.

      I was thinking of Lesspheus' idea of a library anyone could access (public docs at Google docs, maybe?), and comment on and update when necessary, but gathering that info could just as easily be used as a way to organize questions for Gurnee, himself. Possible advantages would include:

      1. Not having to repeat research already done by someone else. Even if you wanted to see the original docs yourself, the file could still save a lot of time by telling you exactly where to look.

      2. Easy to access lists to serve as primers and/or reminders. I'm thinking here of something like a cliff notes or bullet points on things like "The Difference between contract sales and percentage of completion Accounting for XIN" (A topic I know nothing about right now but want to research next week).

      3. Good ideas from multiple threads can be combined into more comprehensive lists (I was thinking of the many good ideas on raising share price put forward on different threads). That might help insure no good ideas get missed, forgotten or overlooked.

      Acorisk, what was your list of 6 things a list of?

      Kind regards,

      • 3 Replies to hmmm26
      • In short, sales are the contracts you sign with you clients, revenue under the percentage of completion method is the (sum of) the parts of the projects that you have completed in each specific period. The latter will appear in your net income statement as revenue, the former is an additional information to your performance during a given period. If your sales in any given period are higher than your revenue as above calculated you can expect the company to grow revenue in the next periods. XIN sales are now slightly below revenue due to the credit restrictions mainly. I expect XIN sales to increase and go above revenue again once interest rates start to decrease.

      • Chris - thread info from you and shell and walth.. the metrics are pretty straight forward - good and bad...

        Some other key ones - whatever keeps institutions out of XIN.

        Also, I still think that being listed in the wrong industry (builder vs developer) matters -- different PEs -- XIN hires builders, but is a developer...NYSE has XIN as a builder.

        Happy weekend.

      • The facts you need are on Yahoo. It really isn't that complicated
        1. Pe of less than 2
        2. Dividend yield of 5.6%
        3. 100% earnings growth last 4 quarters
        4. Book value of $8.

        The only thing not to like is that it's Chinese and the accounting of SOME Chinese companies is questionable.

        Also let's not take away the personal attacks it's the only fun I have when someone writes a truly idiotic post.

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