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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • shelly_showman shelly_showman Aug 11, 2012 2:43 PM Flag

    Just read the transcript/How do they do that?

    Xin said in their February 2012 called, that Xin had net income for 2011 of 100m,
    but just on the 2 land purchases alone, the price tag was 125m, but never mind the cash balance always goes way up.

    On this call for the second quarter ended
    June 30,2012, this is what Gurnee says.
    Net income 69m but
    Cash bal increased by 89m to 605m
    Then in a statement somewhere else in the transcript he says:
    Cash less debt improved by 143m. I'm so
    confused, and I'm not going to go read the SEC filing.

    So lets just go with the 69m for net income. I'm assuming this income tax gain
    is included as the usual net income is 30 to 33m.

    So just a few items I can quickly come up
    with. This does not include the new land
    purchase, nor the 15 Luxury apt. in Irvine, and who knows but it doesn't sound like the 7.4m for the Reno lots? I would say, since Gurnee said in May that
    trip to the US was about land purchasing
    we should include the $7.4m as being paid
    by June 30th.

    Paid on debt $54m
    Divy in May 3m
    last paym on Xuzhou 13m
    Just these 3 items, exceed the 69m net.
    Doesn't include the 7.4 Reno lots, any buy back which looks to be about somewhere
    near 1M? Doesn't include the current debt
    payments on the loans, which the q before
    was about 5m. Yet cash balance increased by 89M. How do they do that? And now they've bought another parcel of land for
    43M which I know is 3rd q, and say they paid 13m down.
    It's not mentioned in the transcript but
    is probably in the filing how much those
    15 luxury apts cost?

    Notice how Gurnee talked about the fraud
    at Longtop? Yet Gurnee was the Chairman of the Audit Committee for 4 years, reading their financials, yet he had no
    idea of the fraud.

    Did you also notice, your 1 previous analyst Roth, was not on the call?

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    • thanks for responding, Shell. Also, I believe, how ever frustrating at times, it is useful to have multiple views (long and short) expressed on the board here. I appreciate the amount of time you spend on this stock.

      I do differ with your interpretation of Friday and today -- I see it as GAP up, huge belief in earnings, then MINOR sell off - tech GAP held (lots of times - there's even a candlestick name for it - the GAP closes the next day). The GAP holding the next day is a much rarer event and suggests strength up (Market belief in a rising price per share, that will be acted on by the market)


    • I Have said before my skills are minimal on reading
      financials especially real estate companies using POC.
      So I have to look at general information but especially what they say or don't say.So you guys say
      to check the cash flow, total cash/restricted cash
      etc. But what do you do in this case. Similar cash
      numbers etc when they report, but then you hear in
      the next call that of 300 units 73 were mutually
      cancelled. So exactly how much did this 73 put down
      (30% is the usual downpayment). So all Gurnee says
      it's mutually cancelled, but doesn't tell us what
      was done ie did they give the money back keep a small transaction fee? What? Xin didn't come back
      and say, we had to give back considerable cash so
      the last q numbers can't be relied upon? Nope they
      don't say anything.

      BTW Star and Acor, it wasn't 260 bank accounts but
      but 240 bank accounts. Why so many and they have
      11 people internally checking cash. Sure, that makes me a believer....not.

      Something else that bothers me, well a couple more
      things that bother me. Gurnee said mid May he was
      going to check out the POSSIBILITIES of land purchases when he left for his trip at the end May
      or beginning of June. We know he didn't spend his
      entire time on this project because most of his time imo was talking to the SEC. Yet they (xin) acquired lots to the tune of 7.4m and flipped a number of them in that very short time frame. I see
      the Government was waiting at the airport to welcome a Chinese company, have we got a list of lots for you in Reno, and all the paperwork you may
      need to do can be done in a flash, uhuh. Gurnee says on the lots they sold they made 30%. How do we
      know, is it listed in the filing how much they paid on each of the lots bought and how much they got when then flipped
      those lots? Can anyone tell me whether there are price amounts on those lots? And how much were each
      of the 15 Luxury ones? No wonder Gurnee filed that
      document to sell his shares, obviously he as an
      outsider knew what the true deal was. A deal cooked
      long before it gets mentioned in the last filing for it to have moved so quickly.

      I see with all the pumping on this board the stock
      still dropped. Well it sure wasn't from my posts, I
      haven't been here, lol.

    • As a slave to the opinion of the market you must realize that the market believed the earnings. At least that was Friday's verdict. At least you no longer hide behind hypocritical congratulations to the longs. You just launch right into your fraud accusations. When the annual report comes out Xin's auditor will verify the numbers. Of course then you will just attack the auditor.

    • >>> Xin said in their February 2012 called, that Xin had net income for 2011 of 100m,
      but just on the 2 land purchases alone, the price tag was 125m, but never mind the cash balance always goes way up. <<<

      Net income is not the only source of cash. Net income and cash flow are two very different animals.

      If you look at the balance sheet you will notice "Real estate under development" is down $70M Q1 to Q2.

      Not all of the cash coming in is net income.

      • 2 Replies to star_hominid
      • Shelly - please redo the analysis using the cashflow sheet -
        with standard discussion of cash from Operations, Financing and Investing. And within Cash from Operations, inclusion of Cash from Net Income, AS WELL AS CHANGES IN NON-CASH CAPITAL (eg what last poster was discussing).

        You are smart, Shell, very smart. Please use your intelligence to enhance the true facts available to all on this board.

        Using incomplete slices of info, as you did by isolating "net income" when you compared available $ and Cost of some assets to try to create fear, uncertainty and doubt is at best, academically dishonest.

        Further attacking the person by analogy would cause you to flunk a freshman logic course, but win a political election.

        Please keep the board at a level of honest discourse with real information sharing, factual and complete information sharing. Otherwise, please find another board to spread the incomplete fear mongering incomplete "facts" that just don't line up with the reality of this company.

        Thanks for at least considering the above action & it would be great to read your complete cashflow analysis, as you are smart

      • >>> cash flow <<<

        If you are really interested in XIN's cash flows...go to the recent 20-F.

        On page F-6 is a Statement of Cash Flows...with adjustments to net income to show the cash flows going into and out of XIN for 2009, 2010, and 2011.

    • shelly, I do not like personal attacks so please take this only as suggestion: if you try to reconcile net income calculated with % of completion method to cash flow by simply subtracting investments or dividends to net income, the best answer I can give you is to cover your short position and give your savings to a professional investor. For instance one element which may have contributed to a positive cash flow are advance payments from new contract sales ,which were to a record high in Q2, but this is just an example; we will know when they file their report.

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