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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

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  • growth.value growth.value Sep 20, 2012 11:08 AM Flag

    China will be announcing their Manufacturing numbers soon

    For me, a Chinese national, Chna's short-term manufacturing fall-off can be stopped by billions of public projects. In the long run, i.e. five years beyond, China's structural problems will be more and more apparent. There will be a day when the central government and local governments just could not afford to make more public projects anymore.

    Also China's current economy slump does not just apply to manufacturing. I have a few friends in retail business there. The retail climate there is lousy too. Many Chinese retailers do not believe a win-win. Rather, they prefer to damage their competitors as much as themselves. On the other hand, foreign consumer product companies with a valid brand equity are doing much better. I went t a shopping center this year in Beijing. Foreign brand stores are full of traffic while the domestic names are more empty.

    People who cite China's 7% GDP growth to indicate China is still doing well than the US are basically naive about economics in China. Most GDP growth in China comes from public investments that yield little corporate profits while most GDP growth in the US comes from consumer spending. The key is corporate profit. One big reason why US stock market is doing much better than the Chinese stock market is that most US companies show corporate profits weigh above 2008 level while most Chinese companies' profits have fall to almost 2008 level.

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