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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • hmmm26 hmmm26 Sep 24, 2012 3:59 PM Flag

    Embellishment 101: Dazzle Your Friends

    Some folks like to embellish a bit when discussing prices they've bought or sold at. While it's not my style (I make my trades verifiable by trading in the clear), I have no objection to this practice. Like shaving strokes at a golf course, it's a venerable institution. I just think it should be executed more effectively. In the last month or so, three folks have claimed they bought XIN in the $1.50's.

    C'mon people, if you're going to lie, at least do your homework. It's just plain LAZY to glance at the $1.54 all time low, add a couple pennies, and declare that you, God's Own Stock Genius, bought massive amounts of shares at those price levels.

    Here's what you don't know: XIN has traded in the $1.50's for a grand total of 3 hours -- 3 HOURS -- spread out over two days in its history. That's it.

    So, unless you bought in the two hour window on October 8, 2008, or the 1 hour window on October 4, 2011 -- and let's face it, you didn't -- then your $1.5x embellishment is just begging to get busted. What if someone who dislikes you happens to know XIN's history?

    To avoid getting busted, I also recommend steering clear of the $1.60's. XIN's only traded in the $1.60's on 4 more days: two in '08 and two last year. It doesn't feel like it, but the truth is that XIN's only traded below $1.70 on 6 days in its history.

    Your audience gets the deal. They know creative license in pricing is as old as the markets themselves. They don't care. They WANT to believe the lie. So why not do them a favor and give them a nice, believable basis?

    My two cents? Go with the $1.80's: XIN traded there long enough to give you some really nice cover.

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