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  • walrathcrai walrathcrai Nov 1, 2012 6:01 PM Flag


    All Obama supporters hail Nate Silver the new god of election forecasting. He gives Obama an 80% chance of carrying Ohio and winning the election. If he's wrong this post will self destruct on Nov 7.

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    • @Walt, that's probably because Scarborough's too smart to take an even money bet when knows he can get better odds anywhere else: Vegas, online sportsbooks, Intrade, everywhere.

      Silver's model is up to 84% today. I've been buying Obama hand over fist everywhere today and I can't seem to move any lines. I wonder if there's an account specifically opened at Intrade to keep Romney's line better than it should be.

      In '08 that was done for McCain, and when it came to light, those on the other side of some of those bets had to worry for a while if we'd be no actioned or something, but Intrade (then called TradeSports) came back and said "hey, it's their money to spend however they want."

      I suspect that's happening today, as well. The correct odds are nowhere near 2:1.

      • 1 Reply to hmmm26
      • Odds are a little simplistic because there is no way to verify what they really are other than what gamblers think they are. All we can really say is that if Obama wins then making him the favorite was justified. If he loses than Willard pulled an upset or the odds were wrong in the first place. Hard to know which. I read an article in Barrons that said Romney was the favorite but state polls don't bear that out. Even RASSmussen has the race even.

    • A Romney victory on Tuesday wouldn't mean Nate Silver's model was wrong unless his Obama numbers continue to climb, to, say, 99%, or something like that.

      My guess is Nate Silver's 4:1 odds are too high, but the polling data definitely has improved for the President over the last week or so. I'd put the odds at 2:1 or maybe 5:2.

    • All supporters of Willard read it and weep!!

6.321-0.119(-1.85%)3:40 PMEDT