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  • growth.value growth.value Nov 2, 2012 11:28 AM Flag

    HGSH: $3.17, 8 FOLD IN 3 DAYS

    @Hmmm, I am happy to answer your question here although it seems it is totally irrelevant to the topic.

    I have been in the US for several years, but I am still well connected in China. I never rule out to go back to China permanently in the future.

    US election has been known in China as a showcase of democracy and a drama of bashing China. The campaign itself is viewed more like a entertainment rather than an informative event. In the past, many most proactive China bashing presidents turned be be China's most favorable friends. So, many people do not feel Romney would be an exception. However, emotionally, those bashing words are pretty harsh to get completely digested. At the end, people will sign and say "this is just another election year."

    At the more sophisticated level, political analysts suspect at the end Republican presidents will be more in China's benefit because they promote free trade more. Romney will be pretty tough at the very beginning at this presidency but will flip at some point. Obama, at the end, may keep his policy close to the policy implemented during his second and third year. Overall, either one elected will not have a huge impact on future China policy. By the way, Romney has been much more friendly towards China before 2011. Sophisticated people understand why he changed.

    Overall, Obama is a much more popular figure among less politically sophisticated people while sophisticated people think Romney may be more favorable in his later part of presidency if elected.

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    • GV, thanks for that insight. I'm glad to hear that sophisticated folks in China realize that the China bashing currently going on is just for show.

      The two countries have little to gain and much to lose from a trade war, but that doesn't prevent China bashing from being popular among voters, as a scapegoat for all of our economic problems.

      And when something's popular with voters, you can be sure that candidates will provide it.

      • 2 Replies to hmmm26
      • @GV, it is unfortunate that many critical voters buying the China bashing when the history of China bashing during campaign, which has never been materialized, just repeated by itself. I guess some people just need a target for them express their unfortunate situation, no matter whether the target is valid. They don't care. They just want to let their emotion out.

        Fortunately, neither country is run by these type of people. Last year, I remember the Senate passed a act to punish China on trades, threatening a trade war. However, the House never even put the act on its calendar. I heard the reason why many senators vote for the act is that most senators know that the House will not vote on the act. They just want to send a message to China. I think it is a very smart political move. Since then, Chinese yuan has moved up slowly, as Chinese officials wanted. I have not heard any law makers sounding as loudly as they used to be on RMB valuation again since then. At the end, I suspect without the actions from the US lawmakers, the RMB will appreciate in a similar speed. At the end, China like appreciate RMB gradually and slowly. A sudden re-valuation will make a hard landing in China, hurting the world economy. US officials understand it.

      • GV, I think that's exactly right: every American knows we've had a rough economic run the last four years, but since the causes and reasons for the '08 - '09 meltdown are too complicated for the average man on the street to understand, it's easy to capitalize on people's fears, and just say: "It's China's fault. Let's get them."

        Fortunately, both countries have shown more willingness to negotiate and compromise than their public statements would have you believe.

6.02-0.13(-2.11%)Aug 26 4:02 PMEDT