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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • jeffreybul23 jeffreybul23 Nov 10, 2012 8:18 AM Flag

    Earnings were good, but low expectations for Q4, and company admitting no real growth until end of 2013?

    Add that to BR, most likley starting their selling again, can the share price stay above $3.00 for now?

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    • Yes, the new news is they won't have enough finished units for strong revs until 3rd quarter 2013 is what I heard too. That will make Q2 comparables look bad, particularly for those that forget the tax adjustment.

      They are expecting the same numbers for the full year 2012, more or less, that they stated in the second quarter earnings release and conference call. In the second quarter, they basically let everyone know that they expected 2012 revenue and earnings to exceed their prior projections nicely due the outstanding and unexpected 2nd quarter sales results, and said they were raising estimates for the full year from prior guidance. They were clear to say that they would encounter project build out through the end of the year, and that they expected to buy property for new projects, but it would take time to see rev. Now it seems pretty clear Q3.

      Condo construction is lumpy anyway and theirs was exacerbated by conservative land development approach (not buying) during period when government of China was killing real estate speculation purposefully. There does seem to be some light at end of gov policy, that began in 2nd quarter, so now they are buying property to develop. Since they sold more than expected in 2nd quarter, they will have to live with the lack of current inventory.

      The risk of selling is that someone may decide to buy a few million shares and take the price range up a notch on p/e scale based on their research. But, there might very well be another buying opportunity next July.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Can’t understand too many things. A lot.
      On Friday were traded above 1 million ADS and XIN didn’t buy because of their black out period.
      That’s to say others were buying this million without much concern of the Q3.

      As we are in a sick market we must think the worst situation, so keeping the idea few people can sell such volume and BR still in first line or would be one of the most important sellers.

      What has really changed with this balance?
      Which ‘s the most important topic in the last guidance?
      XIN ‘ll earned less cents during the next 6 months or XIN has more sqm to develop?
      (no answer: as a long investor the second looks more important but... )

      Undoubtedly are very few longs here and just looking for quick profits or simply need that money to live or survive. Not doing a value judge: Not my style.
      But really thinks a few knowing the real scope of this crisis.
      If get some free hours ‘ll post some irrefutable NUMBERS from the current FINANTIAL SYSTEM to draw your own conclusions about what means a 5% annual profit without doing anything.

      Of course wishing the best luck everyone, but would recognize and accept a wide smile if those who sold their positions fail on the repurchase.


    • Jeffrey, sell and do so quickly. You have time and time again demonstrated that you lack the nerves and courage to have a large amount of your savings in one stock and I would recommend you to take action now before you do something really dumb in an emotional rush.

      You clearly do not know nearly enough about investment theory and/or China to stay here any longer. How on earth can you invest your net worth in XIN and then alternate between cheers and questions like the above loaded with insecurity and distress. You should feel ashamed for toying with your families financial security like this.

      Get off your lazy a** and do something within your qualification.

      • 2 Replies to john.hertford
      • Actually, John I did so Friday. Out of my 32k+ shares, I have 3k left. Sold between $3.30-$3.40. I now have 29 different stocks. Unfortunatly, I will have 45k in short term gains this year, but now I have diversification. If some of those stocks go up, and Xinyuan goes back under $3.00, I may sell some of those, and buy back more into XIN.

        Bought STV Friday with some of my monies. They are up 30%+ today. If they double from my $2.99 cost basis, I will sell and put it into other stocks that I think will double.

    • With the negative outlook XIN's likely to test $3 again, but this company has had great earnings in the past and it's dipped below $3 on good news. It will probably even dip below $3 to something like 2.75 or so where this is support. As long as earnings stay above .20 per share, the stock will be fine.

      • 1 Reply to wgaymon3
      • Earning is really not a big issue, the stock will go higher if investors think this is real. Their book is over $10 now with no intanagable in it.

        I sold most of my shares before the earning and hope the stock could drop so I can buy back cheap.

        But I still take some position if I am wrong. Will buy all my shares back if the stock is over 3.45.(I sold 60% of my holding around 3.60).

        To me, the risk for this stock is on the upside not downside. It looks more and more people convinced that this is a real company. They spent over 200 million to buy land last quarter without draw much of the money from the bank. 200 million purchase was for real to me.

    • The stock is a buy here because it selling at 2x earnings with a 5% dividend. If you had sold some shares on the rally you would now have money to buy. I bought 300 and if it goes to 3 I'll buy 300 more. For the big money guys they can change 300 to 3000. It's still the same concept.

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