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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • lesspheus lesspheus Jan 10, 2013 2:06 PM Flag

    Crazily range bound for over a week now

    What is so magical about $3.85 give or take a few pennies?

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    • Look at it this way. $3.90- $4.00 is multi-year major resistance level. If you have some deep pockets and want to accumulate a good amount of XIN, this is your chance - and quite possibly your last chance before what will likely be a quick $2 move in stock price if/when it breaks out.

      It is also a good level and good time to sell for a lot of folks. There was a ton of stock bought between $2.50 and $2.75 as Blue Ridge unloaded a large chunk of their 11 million + shares at this level in the last year. Earnings are coming up and we are at resistance. For some, why not book a 50% profit and move on, or at least wait to hear guidance.

      So you have some folks who see this as a good time/place to sell, and you have some folks who see this as a great opportunity to accumulate before what could possibly be a rocket ship breakout.

      This little stabs in the last couple of days into the 3.90's seem to me to be attempts to pick off limit sell orders by someone accumulating. They pick them off, then stop. The stock drifts back down... traders get nervous at the "failed breakout attempt" and some of them bail - all patiently gobbled up between 3.82 and 3.86. New sell limit orders are placed in the 3.90's - rinse and repeat.

      Watch for volume to dry up as sellers dry up. - it may drift up into the 3.90's. There are undoubtedly a ton of limit buys above $4.00. When it goes to $4.10 it will go to $4.50 in a blink of an eye. This is why these levels are the last chance to accumulate a good amount of stock.

      Every day that it stays here forming the handle on the cup, the less likely we are to drift back down, and the more likely that there will be a powerful breakout above $4.

      When this thing breaks $4 decisively, the fun will begin - and as long as we get decent guidance, and barring any bad news from the company - Xin should go to $6 rather quickly, and probably test the next major resistance in the $7.80 range by mid-late summer. Fundamentals, value, and technicals are lining up. As always I could be wrong. Good luck to all.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Looks to me like the Handle of a beautiful 9 month Cup. Crazy bullish chart. Patience.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • It is mind boggling considering how much positive has been news coming out of China and US housing sector

      However if you look at intraday trades someone grabs shares as soon as it drops below 3.85

      I think someone is accumulating from the hands of impatient retail traders.

6.1301-0.0399(-0.65%)10:21 AMEDT