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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • piperblumoone piperblumoone Feb 20, 2013 12:14 PM Flag


    according to their own estimates for the fourth quarter 2012 will be some 40-50 million less than 2011 from the news release dated Nov 9th 2012. EPS estimated at 17-20 million (.17-.25 per share) which will also be down from .38 per share from the fourth quarter of 2011. I wonder how accurate these estimates are going to be. Doesnt seem like good estimates to me. I just hope they will provide positive guidance for 2013. Not sure how all this will affect the PPS just thought I'd bring the subject up. Good Luck to all

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • XIN has about 1/5 the PE of Vanke and three times their dividend yield. Unless you think Vanke is likely to grow at least 3 times faster than XIN, XIN should either triple in price, or Vanke should drop to 1/3 its current price. And of course, anything that anyone might have to say about china or real estate in general must apply to both.

    • The $17-$20M guidance for Q4 should be 0.24-0.28 per share earnings using 71M shares outstanding.

      Q1 2013 earnings should be rather poor and be the low point in earnings for some time. January was very strong for sales and home prices in China so earnings might be stronger than XIN had anticipated even with the CNY and low inventory...hence the increase in the dividend.

    • Well Vanke & Evergrande each reported better earning and a record for Jan with Vanke +56% and Ever +300% in sales for the I suspect Xin will do alright and guidance should be good

      • 1 Reply to infn444
      • Xin lowered their forecast on revenue and earnings with the last call. As Infn says, for the same period
        other developers are blowing the top off the sales, revenue and profits, so why shouldn't Xin be able
        to beat handily their lowered forecast? Sould be a piece of cake, or they're the only developer who
        doesn't. They set the bar so low to begin with, any lower would be a bad joke.

        Where are you getting 71M Ads? Since last years annual filing, all Xin has bought back so far is
        894,084 and 1,151,741 that's it that I can see up to this point so imo they still have 73.7M ADS. Now
        maybe you are calculating what they say they intended to buy back, but intention is not doing. So
        under the 20M buyback program, all I see they bought back was the 1,151,741. Maybe you're suggesting they will have bought back another 3.7m ADS?

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