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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson May 7, 2013 10:28 AM Flag

    would short the stock here - they have done this before in 2010

    investors were caught in disbelief as the company unexpectedly raised $40 mln despite having a giant liquidity position at an effective interest rate of 19% - stock went from $4 to to $2.50 within a few weeks

    Peer China Vanke recently paid just a fraction of the interest rate for a much bigger issuance

    Other cash rich Chinese companies like FMCN or SPRD just posted RMB collateral to borrow US$ cheaply so I can't see any sense in this transaction other than some kind of fraud

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    • It requires some explanation from them but if it was fraud nobody would have bought the bonds.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • There is only perfect beta in this stock is the shorts. They track perfectly the performance of the stock. The stock heads to its 52 week high, a short shows up and mummers some foolish nonsense. The stock goes down and any talk about the stock is pushed aside by the my-guy-is-right politicos.

    • paolorubin May 7, 2013 12:42 PM Flag

      There's a lot of stocks I would short but XIN is not one of them. Xin may have raised money then and now, but they're still here now and now is different than 3 years ago.

      • 1 Reply to paolorubin
      • paolorubin May 7, 2013 2:11 PM Flag

        You would have to assume it's a fraud, that it's cooking the books, that it doesn't even own any of the land/properties they say they own, etc. etc. Even playing the volatility is tricky when the price has been looking for an excuse to move higher. What if you had been a short yesterday playing on the recent consolidations? That would have been a disaster. With earnings 3 days away I'd be careful. If there is any good news on Williamsburg--the shorts might be going back to their day jobs and the fickle longs will be kicking themselves. God forbid they actually start building in Williamsburg, the price would shoot through the roof......Right now it's all about that project. It is the catalyst that will send things over the top and I believe Xinyuan can do it. I believe they can pull it off.....And one last thought: Would you seriously rather go $5 to .0001 as a short than $5 to $15+ as a long? Too much potential upside to be thinking short right now really. Even if there are delays, this company will eventually find its way. It's only a matter of time.

    • omeg4 May 7, 2013 11:17 AM Flag

      That's what the institutions said when they loaned Xin $200 million and increased their position in the company by 1%.

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