I was long on CSIQ among Chinese solar stocks. Based on available information I thought it had the best one to two year outlook. But it did not do well compared others like TSL, JKS and YGE. It tanked to low 3 from 5 last March, more than the others. I thought that I made mistake and sold out. Now it is 7.80, more than doubled in about two month and has gone up most among the peers. Now it appears that institutions agree with what I believed earlier as it has gone up on huge volumes. I got back to it a higher price and am up well.
Now with XIN I am seeing the same. It trades at low volume like CSIQ before the take-off and also at a deep discount. I believe it will go up to a price it deserves. The only question to me is when.
I have RDN (more than tripled for me) and WFR, a U.S. solar stock (up over 40%). Both of them were ignored and trashed stocks when I first got into them, but again they have been winners for patient investors. I believe one can make outsize gains with patience with depressed stocks with good business fundamentals. XIN is easier to wait since it pays a decent dividend yielding over 4%, far better than interest yield from a bank. I started buying XIN around 3.00. Although it has been in down-move right now, the current weakness did not changed the longer-term steady up-trend.
GNW is another potential winner in reovering U.S. mortgage insurance business. But it is not a pure play since it derives more revenue from life and long-term care insurances. I have been trading it for short-term gains while keeping RDN for long-term. GNW certainly has a potential for out-sized gain for patient investor. Once long-term care insurance business shows improving margin, it could be a better choice than RDN.
CSIQ is unique among Chinese solars as it has a large pipeline of solar installation business which will be profitable. Just look at FSLR, SPWR and SCTY. You would be happy to have them in your portfoli now. Closely behind them are WFR and CSIQ. Solar power is not expensive any more in many parts of the world. Actually it has become the preferred source of power in many markets.
It is true that pure module producers are sufferring from over-supply, but they have made solar competitive in many markets.