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United Parcel Service, Inc. Message Board

  • mljt1956 mljt1956 Oct 23, 2013 1:39 PM Flag

    Will it stay at $90 after the earnings????

    How much do you think it will drop???

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    • I don't think it will drop at all. First off, the EPS estimate is $1.15 by most analysts and Zack's expects $1.16. I think we beat the $1.15 by about 2 pennies. The revenue expectation of $13.6B is 4% higher than 2011 Q3. During Q1 we upped by 2% and Q2 by 3% so the trend is there. We should also consider that the fuel scenario helps us in 2 ways. First, we had a tailwind from Q2 concerning surcharge timing. Secondly, as we've all seen, fuel costs are coming down markedly for the going forward discussion. Throw in the extra operating day we lost in Q2 which moved into Q3 and we should be set up nicely. If memory serves, FDX did not have a particularly great report last month and look what those shares have done. At some point, investors will give more credence to our far superior dividend which I predict will be going up either 5 or 6 cents for 2014. Today, FDX announced their peak season expectations and they seemed pretty solid so there's no reason why ours won't be as well. The only stumbling block will be the analyst discussion and answers regarding the locals that have still not signed on to the Master Freight Agreement. Hopefully, good news in on the horizon. I still suspect that some sort of defined benefit buyout is coming down the pike which will generate significant long-term savings. One last thing, I am reading on a continual basis that institutional investors like the European recovery and suggest that market might be a superior choice over overpriced U.S. stock market. We are huge in Europe. I think there's a lot of good stuff here.

      • 1 Reply to dudesbag
      • As far as operating days, I believe everybody would have taken that into consideration. FDX increase was due to their announcement of share buybacks (look at the charts and the date of the announcement). FDX was flat or down after their earnings. As far as Europe, what percentage of the volume and revenue comes from there? I don't believe it is much. So when you see a 20% increase, I don't believe it equates to much as far as the overall revenue. Also, the package density is not there.

 
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