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Augme Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • mobileguru20000 mobileguru20000 Oct 21, 2012 2:39 PM Flag

    Putting things in perspective MM vs. AUGT

    MM ($1.2 Billion Valuation) vs. AUGT ($80 Million Valuation)

    Going back and reviewing MM's revenue ramp is interesting. Look at 2010-2011 and you will see how close Augme is now to being where they were in Mar. 2010. They reported $8.8mm in that Q. They appear to have had an annual CAGR of about 94% from Mar 2010 to Sep 2012. If Augme/HC were to stay on track with 20% sequential quarterly growth out to May 2014, I come up Augme/HC also having about the exact same 94% CAGR as MM and they'd be reporting about $23mm per qtr. If this growth continues or even slightly varies, that would place Augme's share price on track for an approximate $8-$10 share price using MM as the comp. This is just for HC and of course Augme has sued MM for patent infringement which will be an interesting twist depending on what comes of it. Any way you slice it, with the current growth, current clients, current Adlife platform and current growth in the space just now starting to ramp, the current share price of Augme is very undervalued. Like I said, it will either rise on its own due to fundamental improvement and recognition by the market, or it gets taken out as consolidation sweeps the space.

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    • "I am hoping they eventually hit a homerun with the IP. I really don't consider myself a pumper. until someone tells me the IP is not good and not enforcible and all we have is a mobile marketing company to sell at 3 dollars a share I'll take it."

      You are the worst of the pumpers. Nothing you ever post is in the realm of reality concerning the IP. Someone did tell you the IP is not good: Spero, then Augme management by terminating the Tacoda case, and a $.60 share price. Oh yeah, the CEO was terminated because he had no idea how to monetize the IP and IMO grossly misrepresented the IP to investors for 2 years which, has caused a lot of financial pain for many.

      Can the IP be turned around? Probably. Until something material happens concerning the IP it is best to zip it, as your "analysis" and "prognostications" have been completely terrible on every issue. Anyone that reads your posts is likely slamming their heads against their desk and ready to destroy their computers when they open their monthly statements.

      This might seem harsh but you along with some others need a serious reality check.

      • 1 Reply to flyersdh
      • Agree flyers about the pumpers.. if the 3 amigos even talked to PA or even went to the SH meeting it seems "arranged".. they came back and spewed their personal talk with PA as gospel..prob like they were told to do.. but they dont need a reality check because they have another reality..they know exactly what they and others are doing..none even own shares, imo, like others here who "claim" to buy shares every day, every bull..

    • Great comparison Mobile. I would add that given MM was mainly in the display ad business side of mobile and the growth rate they experienced was still in an time that mobile advertising is as an infancy stages and as such we should see the industry in general see and acceleration going forward. Furthermore, Augme did not participate in that business before AdServe which they initiated since mid 2011 and now this business is starting to contribute a substantial amount of revenue to our overall ad platform. If you are think solely based on a mobile ad display network comparison with MM then IMO we will see substantial growth for Augme on that sector with AdServe as was announced on the CC. As more business understand the mobile advertising paradigm they will less tend to throw money solely to display ad but to approach this from a comprehensive mobile capability approach which Augme is the leader in. I am not sure in that time frame MM will be doing anywhere as well as Augme since they are only Ad Display providers.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • That's a very good analysis about the future potential of the company mobileguru.

      In order to meet those #'s, we'd need 8 straight quarters (including Q2 FY 13 and I'm assuming Q3 FY 13) of this average sequential growth rate. We've had one quarter already and I'm quite confident Q3 will provide another consecutive quarter meeting (and hopefully exceeding) the 15-20% sequential revenue growth.

      As we know, the revenues/revenue growth will be "lumpy", but on an annualized basis, do you think HipCricket can/will continue to see that type of growth over the next 6 quarters (starting with Q4 FY 13 and again assuming that we hit at least 20% sequential revenue growth in Q3)?

      A few things to consider:

      Assuming we meet the top (20%) of the 15-20% sequential revenue growth estimates for the remainder of the FY 2013, we'd do approx $27.6 million in revenues. Based on pro forma FY 2012 revenues of $16,884,243 (which takes into account all of HipCricket's revenues for FY 2012 and adds them to Augme's to reach an accurate full-year revenue number for FY 2012), that would represent ~63.5% YoY revenue growth in FY 2013 vs FY 2012. I believe that there are only two quarters per year that we're going to see substantial sequential revenue growth (I think that was evidenced last FY and will be evidenced again this FY), and that's Q2 and Q3 of each year. My guess is going forward for the next few years, we'll see a CAGR of around 50%. That's nothing to sneeze at, but it's also about 1/2 of what Millenial's growth rate was in the period mentioned, so assuming no contribution from the IP (which certainly isn't a given, and also assuming no addt'l dilution which I think we're bound to see at least a little bit), based only on HipCricket I see $4-5/share in the next 24 months. Assuming the median share price of $4.50, that's a phenomenal return of about 550% over the next two years, or 275% per year, but again, that's for those who end up with an avg share price around .68/share. Potential IP wins/licensing deals etc could also provide an upside kicker here as well. At current levels, it does present a compelling risk/reward profile....

    • Good stuff!

    • wakemewhenthedaisiesbloom wakemewhenthedaisiesbloom Oct 21, 2012 3:54 PM Flag

      P/S for MM, is 7.8. If Augme were seeing that, the price should be around $2.12 using 110mm share float, and $30mm TTM revenue.

      At $23mm/qtr ~ $92mm TTM would put it at $6.52 all else being equal. Although Augme should see higher margins than MM, so maybe $8 - $10.