your math is way way off ... and so is your logic.
1/3 owned by institutions (not going anywhere)
1/3 owned by insiders (not going anywhere)
1/3 is floating around to trade (fire sale!)
1/3 of 770mln is approx 257mln
The day saw 52mln shares change hands
52mln of 257mln is 20%.
What you saw today was a bloodbath as the market took in the
news that Nick reversed his commitments from 10 days ago,
and plotted a new course for ARCP. Basically, he lied. Sort of.
Simple analogy: You live in AZ and 10 days ago you bought a bus
ticket to go to TX. The bus company took your money and handed
you a ticket. You willingly got on the bus, and decided to take a nap.
When you woke up the captain informed you that the trip to TX is
cancelled, and for your own good the bus has been re-routed to
Niagara Falls via Buenos Aires. The bus accelerator is jammed,
but the captain assures you that the bus WILL NOT run out of gas
and we SHALL arrive at Niagara Falls. Via Buenos Aires. There is
nothing to worry about. Carry on.
I wouldn't say we are screwed, but ARCP is not for the faint of heart
either get to know the REIT business, and I mean pick up a book, or
get the hell out of this thing. In my FY2013 portfolio the REIT business
accounted for over 1/3 of my realized gains and more than 50% of my
dividend income. I didn't make that money by jumping on innuendo and
rumors, but rather fully understanding Cap Rates, AFFO and the legal
structure of the REIT itself; how it operates and what binds it to the
shareholders that support it.
ARCP is not a growth stock. It will take the rest of 2014 to return to 14pps
and the next 24-36 months to stabilize in the 14-15 range. The dividend
growth prospects are dim, especially after the spin-off cancellation
however when the dust settles ARCP shall enter the SAP 500 in 2015
and with that MASSIVE success those of us who bought in at lower pps
will enjoy a long period of strong dividend growth and capital appreciation.