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Agrium Inc. Message Board

  • artchiu_2000 artchiu_2000 Apr 30, 2013 9:04 PM Flag


    has been a laggard for some time, consolidation period after the proxy fight or is it just the overall market. we all need to eat, we all need food. comments???

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • I think some investors have this all backward from the perspective of cost of inputs Vs products.
      For this company the future is lower input costs due to sliding costs of chemical components input to crop protection and fertilziers. Additionally costs of heating /cooling stores is likely to go down with energy prices.

      On the other hand oil & gas producers are very likely to face declining margins due to oversupply.
      Some chemical companies that are also producers of energy are alreading facing this situation.

      AGU should benefit from the trend.
      Additionally the projected over 30 percent increase in food demand over the next decade is highly likely to benefit this company.

      As you indicated, people will spend money on food first, then shelter, then other.
      I added to my position and will add more as this debacle unfolds.
      It could be that Jana is unloading out of spite. They appeared to be quite bitter at their vote loss.

      Major point:
      There is NO other major investment sector that will outperform agriculture should there be a downturn.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to aroundtheworldin30days
      • down 8 weeks in a roll, the last time agu dropped like that was the beginning of 2004, from Jan to end of May.

        thanks to the media, every "headline" is saying sell in may, market correction is coming, europe problems, greece round 4, spain round 3, italy round 2, china slow down round 3, stories never end, but we need food to survive.

        farmers need seeds to grow
        crops need nutrients to grow
        farm-able lands are shrinking

        so, without food, we cannot enjoy anything else, no matter what.

        so why the stock is down, who knows, may be jana is getting out, may be some large dealers decide to short the stock (sell side), may be...etc etc

        with attractive valuation, agu is a great buy (pe 17), i am hoping jana will team up with some hedge fund buddies for a round 2 fight (just a guess)

        just imagine if agu is trading @ pot's pe = $160, 160-90 = 78% return == SWEET !

        as i saw what happened to CP Rail's share price after ackman's proxy win, 72% return in a matter of 8 month, (122-72), i sold mine early, but i still made a double digit return, thanks to ackman

        i am sure jana sees values in agu and wants a double digit return similar to that of cp share price.

        canadian ceos are traditionally slow to accepting and implementing new ideas they are stubbornly careful), i hope that jana will fight again, expand the pe and pocket the return.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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