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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Mar 9, 2011 10:11 AM Flag

    You guys need to quit obsessing over

    I highly doubt the dividend can be raised. They pay out 90% of profits, as dictated by the law that allows them to be in the mREIT business. They're making max profit on every dollar of capital, since Fed rates can't go negative and nobody knows when mortgage rates will rise. If mortgage rates do rise, the Fed rates will follow. Leverage is a multiplier, but they're maxed-out on that (and if they aren't, why not?). So there's very little room for a dividend rise, other than fluctuations due to mis-estimating the profitt (i.e., they may have to give a few extra nickels in the last Q of the year to meet the 90% annual quota).

    SPOs will continue for as long as the company exists. The 90% payout means they have to get growth capital somewhere other than reinvestment of profits. Even if the spreads drop by half this will still be a high-yield stock, and with an aging population those are always increasing in demand.

    I say it's fine then to be focussed on the divs and SPOs, and to play them as they come. They're there to make the company and its investors money, and that money comes form people who don't pay attention to them.

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