It may drop a bit further than where it is now (presently $28.60+.-), possibly down to $28.00, before recovering. It has also in the past rallied from the low point, $28, and rose back to $30 (or some range like it). While that woudl be an amazing preformance given the recent challenges finding new and higher ground, we may get something entirely different and the only way to trade it is to watch the charts. If we see $28.00, might be worth a shot on some calls for the day.
I still think they will do an offering. IVR just did one under book, TWO and ARR just completed offerings. I expect both NLY and AGNC to follow suit. The environment can't be too bad if the others are still running them.
I think once the sp rebounds enough to support a 28+ dollar offering price, they will slam dunk one. Just my 2 cents.
No shelf yet, If I recall correctly they still had 31M left on the old shelf in May, and they will probably use at least 15M of that for highly accretive DSP and such, leaving only 16M for a SPO. I doubt they'll do a SPO until a new shelf is filed becuase they probably want to keep those 16M unissued in case they are ever needed for a SHTF deleveraging SPO.
If the discount is to 27.70, it's unlikely the market price will go there. If the market price goes to 27.70, it's because the SPO price is 27.50 or less.
It was great reading all of your comments a bit late and after the event. We never saw $28.00 and now we are at $29.20. Probably, would have been better to trade 1,000 shares or so. Anyway, I bought puts now, 50 Sept. 31's for $2.20. I learned my lesson last time in terms of the MREITs taking a hit, so this time I am going to stay comfortable holding puts for awhile. There will be a down day, certainly. I only need to get $28.25 or so.