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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • docpopov docpopov Jul 6, 2011 10:40 AM Flag

    Just sold all my AGNC shares

    Chart's topping short term, NLY offering looming,

    sold all my AGNC positions in multiple accounts at 30.03 - 30.09.

    Hope to buy again well below 30.00.

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    • Congratulations to all who sold "too soon" yesterday!

      After all it is not going to 32 as some implied.

      It is going to see 28 or lower before it goes to 32 if ever.


    • so your the reason why this stock keeps going up? shouldn't short buddy :)

    • I'm holding for a bit longer considering that the last two peaks were 30.50+.

      I think we get at least another 20-30 cents, maybe even more.

    • I'd be cautious selling - there was clearly a long line of folks waiting to buy after last div. It hardly dropped at all.

      Given the prospect for continued low short rates, we may simply be seeing AGNC shifting to a more reasonable risk/reward.

      Wouldn't you be willing to hold this at 17% div? 16% div? That's $33-35 or so.

      Furthermore, if Congress screws up on debt (99% odds, there!) we'll have an environment where short term rates are held low (rather desperately) while long rates pop - perhaps some are starting to price that in.

      • 1 Reply to zamanaha
      • zamanaha I agree with you on dividend return being nice at lower than 18% even down to 15% would be a good return given the other returns out there now. I see only default as being the only enemy that AGNC has at this time. If that is avioded and I still believe it will be then the LT rates on interest will last for at least a year or longer so AGNC will be money in the bank for a while. Unlike some on this board I see a default as the dark crash of share price but the odds remain against such a default.

        Both parties have go to know the damage that would do and smart guys are screaming into the ears of the leaders to not let it happen or else. Some of those are big money to the party guys and those get listen too. They will push it to the brink unfortunely making the market a scary place to be but so far it has not shown any fear at all has it?

        I have a 1% trailing stop loss on AGNC so I am not counting pennies in my trading as hitting the top or bottom is not a skill I live by. Trend buying and selling is just fine with me. Do I think from here to next dividend date the stock will sell at a lower price than it is now? If history is followed it will but this type of run up is not found on my charts so maybe history is being written?

    • If you look at the macd you will see that this still has a little left to run. I would think somewhere around $30.50. Anytime you can make a profit it is a good thing. I sold calls on my shares for the AUG 30, though I sold a little to soon and only got .35. It will soon be time to buy puts for any correction that may happen.

    • Congrats fellas. You all did much better than me, I sold way too soon.

      Lesson learned. Next offering, buy 1000 shares, sell 500 the next day to lock in profit, hold the other 500 for 30.

    • not for a while,its going to 32.00

    • Congrats! I sold a bit too soon today but still am satisfied. Out at 29.07 a couple of weeks ago (after x-div), back in at 28.47 and out at 29.96 for nice cap gains and the upcoming div.

    • Me too at $30.10 - what do you think we should get back in at?

      • 3 Replies to mrw02536
      • I will not buy until NLY comes with secondary any day, then see how AGNC will behave.

        Hope to buy for around 29, just wait and see.

        Next run to 30 or more instead of selling I am just going to sell calls then buy them back after another swing down.

        See how it works, that way it is probably possible to get 30% or more annual gain with dividends.

        But I am cautious, since I got in REITS game kind of late.

        Really depends how long interest rates will remain low, which is connected to economy which will stink for at least few years.

        The worst for Europe and rest of the world is still to come.

      • Most of the time $30 area I get out looking for small breaks to trade in from long side. This time however I am holding tight my 10K shares $28.27 cost until I get a feeling it's top out for a while. I am sure it's going to get to $31+ before the Ex Date. My reasoning to hold is I am also watching the strong early runs that IVR, HTS, NLY are making and seems to me a very strong up trend that has not given up to profit taking (yet). I don't see the day traders rushing in at the close to cover either. So with a strong up trend I am going to go with the flow until I start seeing sell offs at the close. I have 8k of IVR also in the mix. So far it's been on heck of a ride in only two weeks. Sure hate to make a pig out of myself. Like you I keep thinking we got over two months to Ex Date and seems early for such a run but maybe we moving up into a higher trading range. Love this stock!!!

      • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Jul 6, 2011 10:51 AM Flag

        >what do you think we should get back in at?

        The next bottom.

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