We have a declining upper trend line with the following dates and prices:
6-8 $30.74, 7-7 $30.34, 8-17 $29.99 and 9-16 $29.90
Fib 61.8% retracement is $27.42 using the high of $30.74 and low of $22.03
Moving average trio is in alignment but twisting as if in the accumulation stage.
Pennant Pattern has established itself just below the upper trend line. The slope is somewhat neutral and the converging trend lines are holding price within this tight zone. Apex appears to form at or about 11.21.11
Target: $29.25 to $29.66
Determined by applying the difference of the resistance break which became support at $27.42 (also the 61.8% Fib retracement) to the height of the pennant $28.90 = $1.48. From the apex of the pennant on 11.21 of $28.18 which is a guess and adding the $1.48 flagpole we get a target of $29.66. My only problem with $29.66 is that the declining trend line tops out at $29.25 and is acting as major resistance!
Thanks for your report Jim,
You have been missed! No one can argue with success..and if TA works for you well...;-)
I always enjoy your insights and it doesn't hurt that in my recollection you have always been correct.
I have studied Fibonacci for years now and I think it is one of those wonders of the world while attempting an approach to explain retreats in a weird spiral the closer you get to a possible explanation...
>Happy to see someone expalinating.
The GOP managed to exPalinate, but now they appear to be exPerrymenting with the emMittance of crack coCaine. Soon the public will be demanding to know what they Newt and when they Newt it, and they'll wish they could Paul it all Bach, mann.
True, but technical analysis is a purest science. My anlaysis is based on yield and my figures are following an earlier post from Doc who suggest $29.50 is about right. From there I then, back test it based on a potential dividend of $1.30, to get a yield of 17.6% and a pps/book value of 1.09x.
Last quarter we got to $29.90, and a yield of 18.7% and a PPS/book of 1.11.
It just depends on the dividend declaration, which should be about 12/20. So, basically what the charts are telling us is higher grounds are possible, but on a more fundamental level it looks more like $29.50. However, the figures also are supportive of $29.25 or $29.00.
My guess is $29 pre-dividend declaration and $29.50 post dividend if we see $1.30. If we see $1.40, then it will be a higher price. If we see $1.30, then it will be a lower price.
As far as exogenous factors, true there are macro and geo political worries, but AGNC will trade up through those generally as get into December.
Good to hear from you. I hope that things are going well in the Sunshine State.
Thanks for your technical analysis. Based on the charts, it looks to me like 29 to 29.50 is our new, pre X-d. target range. Like Rim, I will be more than happy with anything north of 29.
Thank you, Jim.
Absolutely perfect day down here with a warm breeze off of the gulf. I am anxious to see a pick-up in momentum but I think AGNC needs to finish its consolidation. We should see it unwind towards the beginning of next week and hopefully catch a strong bid.
My very best!
Math help...and likelihood question....
I sold Dec 30 calls for $0.20
If the price is $29 on expiration Friday, I believe they will be exercised (cost to call buyer will be 30.20 but div will offset bringing it to 28.80)
Is my thinking correct? New at this options trading...and trying to figure out what price stock will need to be at in order for my calls to be exercised.
Alternatively, currently the Dec 30 call is at $0.10...should I close my covered call position and keep the div for Christmas?
Sharing your work is appreciated by many members of this board. $29.50 would be a great gift many of us option traders would love, but $29.25 will more than suffice. Keep up the great work.
GL2UA and go AGNC
I take it all in stride. Like it or not, technical analysis works for me and has for a very long time. AGNC is in a new quarterly price zone as most will attest. TA better helps me to define these zones and trade accordingly. No real guess work just the facts!!