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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • reits_r_us reits_r_us Apr 15, 2012 12:58 PM Flag

    The Shining Star...AGNC

    Good Morning,

    I don't think most folks realize the incredible growth curve of AGNC. Here is a helpful reminder:(As of Dec 31, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008)

    Assets(Enterprise value):

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    1.5B 4.3B 13.5B 54.6B

    Comprehensive Income(This includes derivative income):

    2008 2009 2010 2011

    9.7B 163.3B 200.3B 1,149.3B

    At this pace it will take roughly two years to outpace NLY in
    these values(Gross numbers. AGNC already has outpaced NLY in performance:

    Here is the important note: cf. Quarterly Revenue Growth(year over year) for AGNC(64.4%) cf to NLY(-58.7%). That's right 123.1% difference!

    AGNC is growing and NLY is going backwards. You won't hear any of this on "Seeking Alpha". They are too busy touting ancient history without the sense to project numbers forward.

    Here is a comparison. You can see how well NLY's other investment has done(CIM):

    No matter what metric you want to compare, AGNC outstrips all other mReits in growth and performance. Adding more authorized shares simply allows the raging Bull to keep fed. If you don't feed the Bull(SPO's), give him good pasture and grooming(management), the Bull languishes(NLY, IVR, HTS, ARR, MFA, CIM, CYS, ANH).

    As more folks wake up and dump their sick animals they will find AGNC and MTGE. Smart folks already have, like you.


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    • >>Technically, NLY is treading wster and MTGE is climbing Mt Rainier>>

      Well said! A picture is better than a 1000 words....;-)


    • Yep, AGNC is the king.

      I'm not too sure about it's little brother MTGE... It still bugs me that the price is still lower than the morning of the SPO.

      I guess we will have to wait and see ex-div.

    • Actually I was not addressing the AGNC vs. NLY contest. I was just surprised by the .37/share number and thought that if that told the whole story then NLY's share price should have dropped well into the single digits. (Maybe it will?)

    • 3)

      Its all fun and bluster(Jonkai). As Livermore said, "the tape is the tape".


      >>I certainly hope to avoid any stray b.u.l.lets>>

      Too late....;-)

    • 2)

      So, what I am saying is look at both the comprehensive and net incomes from each year(2010-11)on the NLY link. You can't have it both ways. You want to talk "comprehensive" then why did AGNC outperform(this year, 2011) NLY's comprehensive income of 2010?

      You want to talk net income, then why did AGNC outperform NLY's net income this year(2011 cf 2011)? When asked and not answered on the NLY board, Jonkai's answer is that AGNC operates undisclosed, derivative operations, that certainly cannot be continued. This, in his explanation, is why AGNC's comprehensive income is as high as it is.


    • Hi Ephort,

      Either way Jonkai is in the bottom of the paper bag, because he is hyper-ventilating. The reason, look at the comparison between the 2010 and the 2011 summary for NLY.

      Surely you don't think he will suggest a different accounting between columns without guidance regarding the same, on the same report? On the other hand...;-).


    • I have found this amicable scuffle to be useful, as it points out how difficult it is for common mortals to make sense of, and compare, financial statements of companies.

      I see though (and I assume that your amicable adversary in this will argue so before long) that AGNC has changed its reporting system as of 2011 and uses mark-to-market (after something called "hedge de-designation") so its net income includes items that used to fall under comprehensive income.

      NLY, however, seems to use a different system, and its income seems to be better reflected in the "comprehensive income" line item.

      It would be interesting to have a confirmation (or the reverse) of the above understanding of mine. As usual -- no expertise claimed in the nuances of corporate accounting systems, and I certainly hope to avoid any stray bullets.

    • Stock will perform for a while,but when the time comes you wont be able to walk away. I all ready did.

      • 2 Replies to ovicp
      • Hey Peter,

        The DRV fund should be a great one to buy for those expecting a blow out in the mReit sector. DRV is a 3x short fund to the MSCI U.S. REIT Index (^RMZ).

        Maybe can get in at the bottom...;-)


      • >>you wont be able to walk away. I all ready did>>

        That's good Peter. I'm trading monthly until the "Fat Lady Sings"(otherwise known as when Obama gets re-elected). Hope to make a few more thousand from all the folks waiting for the collapse.

        Why don't you buy a few Puts, since you are so Bearish on the stock? I'll sell you some.

        I'll spend your premiums on good causes, like the new Cusip # 1177711, under the symbol DRV. It will be a brand new fund that Jonkai, unwittingly, is going to help me with.

        You see his doltish remonstrations are helping the NLY folks abandon their holdings and switch over to AGNC.

        This has already been seen, from my first encounter with him over one month ago(note the divergence in PPS between the stocks(note especially from the middle of March, when I first started to tell the NLY folks to switch from that loser to AGNC, and Jonkai's lame efforts, actually aiding their departure. Thank you Jonkai:

        The prospectus is coming out next month. Its full name is the DocReits vacation fund...;-)


    • Hi Doc,

      You made a mistake when you fell in love with stock. Any stock.

    • Well there's a bunch of interesting stats. And the argument that follows is interesting, too.

      Just so no one thinks I'm prejudiced, I own both NLY and AGNC.

      My question about AGNC is this: Growth has mushroomed but income from the stock has fallen. All this growth has not benefited me as an income investor. I did not buy this stock for capital appreciation. I have a modest profit in it, but what I'd really like is for my income to grow. Does anyone think that is likely in the next year?

      • 1 Reply to phughyoung
      • >>All this growth has not benefited me as an income investor. I did not buy this stock for capital appreciation. I have a modest profit in it, but what I'd really like is for my income to grow. Does anyone think that is likely in the next year?>>

        Hello!! All I can do is show you a graph for having held each stock for 1 year:

        Now I'll help you further. Last year AGNC on April 15th traded @ 28.53(close). One year later, last Friday close @ 30.11. You got 1.40, 140, 140, 1.25 dividends also , so you made, (wait for it Jonkai)....drum roll....24.64%(5.45 divi's and 1.58 capital appreciation).

        OK, you didn't buy it for capital appreciation. So donate the capital appreciation from AGNC to your favorite charity and sell AGNC and buy NLY. Then you don't have to worry about capital appreciation. In fact your dollars make more each year because the stock price goes down. So, if the PPS goes down and the dividends remain the same... lo and behold, you will make a higher yield. I've heard Jonkai encourage his fellow cult members to do the same using the same err logic. Makes sense to him...;-)

        Let's now compare NLY....low drum roll, then a fart...3.79%(2.37 divi's and a loss of capital of -1.71). In case Jonkai doesn't have a calculator that's a 650% difference.

        >>My question about AGNC is this: Growth has mushroomed but income from the stock has fallen>>

        Are you kidding?? Do you think a cut of .15 in the dividend is hurting the PPS. Have you looked recently? We are over 30.00, in April. When have we ever traded over 30 in April...hello! I know you apparently dislike capital appreciation. Buy NLY then, they DON'T HAVE ANY capital appreciation.

        >>I have a modest profit in it, but what I'd really like is for my income to grow>>

        I think I'm talking to the wall....;-)


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