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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • reits_r_us reits_r_us Aug 12, 2012 5:45 PM Flag

    Arsh, Taymere, Cat...are you out there?

    Hey, it's Sunday and the lake beckons....but maybe tomorrow you will see the headline and let us know if you are still alive. I think poor old Porkus's health finally got him. ...God Bless him. Old traders never die....they just fade away....

    Let us know, who out there, in that original DD( and the rest of you like GreenThumb, BillyPacker and RaltptheMouth) are still kicking....

    Best to you,


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    • Hey Doc – I’m replying to you from the other thread.

      Gosh………. The Newport to Bermuda Race seems like ages ago, given that the wife & I and another couple just finished a world-wind tour of Asia, including Hong Kong, India, Thailand, Burma, South Korea, and Japan.

      But to answer your question, the crew & boat finished in the middle of the pack, not bad given that they blew-out 2 sails – a large jib during a squall in the Gulfstream and the brand new spinnaker near the end of the race! While in the warm waters of the Gulfstream, they reported it was raining so hard that they could barely see beyond the bow of the boat and the winds gusted to 50 knots.
      Of course it could have been worse – I spoke to the skipper of the Kodiak (the favorite in my division) and he told me that they hit a basking shark while in the Gulfstream and messed up his rudder! The Class 10 “J” boats were the most exciting, IMO!
      It was the fun, the drinking of “Dark & Stormies”, the spirit of the race and seeing friends that I had not seen in years that really made the race special for me.
      My apologies to the posters who are not fans of Offshore Racing for rambling on -Sailors just have too many “War Stories” :-)

      Did you see [my hero] Freddie make his appearance at the Closing Ceremonies??? That should answer your other question :-)¤t=FreddieMercurydrinkingbeer_0001.mp4&sort=ascending

      The wife and her “girlfriends” are off to Paris for a week and I leave for Dubai in a couple of days for business purposes.

      The only stock related items on the news front, was that a late stage VC in Palo Alto – some of Ray’s buddies, I think :-) - that manages a portion of my wealth sold their entire investment in FB during the IPO. Yippie……………..
      So………….. much like selling my investment in KMP, I am now faced with where to reinvest the funds (?????) –
      I know, I know…. Some people wish they had these problems :-)... Sorry if I am sounding like a 1 percent’r - Unfortunately, I hear this all the time!

      FWIW – I am also closely watching Carl’s proxy fight with “Uncle Howdy” (FRX)……. Tomorrow’s the day!!
      Also hoping to join up with a new hedge fund that is being started by 2 of Carl’s x- lieutenants ………

      BTW Doc – Exactly when is the PPS of KMP going to come back down to within buying range :-)

      The Best of Everything to you, the DD Team (et al)


    • >> You have a good thing going with agnc. Good Luck.>>

      And to you likewise, my friend...;-)


    • Ok, you made me spread another 50 at .58. What are you waiting for(working)? .57? I tried, no takers....;-)

      I think this is a great spread, also , and will look to add on further weakness. This is now the 11th consecutive day of down days( close less than open). Unprecedented in the past ten years, and perhaps forever. This has not been this oversold since the 2007-08 market crash.

      I remember trading live hog back 18 years ago in commodities and buying into a record decline. It never came back. I always hold that unpleasant experience in the back of my mind in tempering my buying activity.

      Of course we didn't have a ridiculous history of unprecedented runs to a smallish dividend as an historical assurance either, as we have in BMY. Hence my trades.



    • Hey, DocReits.
      Hope all is well with you and the original DD team. It breaks my heart to think Porkus is no longer with us. I enjoyed his wit and input.

      Having missed the run in AGNC my focus has been on MTGE of late. I have been lurking but out of print as I don't want to get in between the love affair that Reikreik and Lenloc have been having.

      I released my position earlier this month and reloaded MTGE on the 50% Fib. retracement at 24.08 on Friday holding high hope the slow move up begins soon.

      My very best,


    • It looks like the last posting for Porkus was April 16, 2012. He indicated he was leaving the message board but would check back in in May. No word since then. I hope you are wrong Doc, and we hear from him again.


    • Alive for sure, just using chk as the trading vehicle. Wrote a couple of times, but I guess it was stuck in the far end, including the congratulations to you for the tests. Has Porkus been heard of at all? Hope you guys are awesome. I'll be in more often once dad's festival is done with next Sunday.

    • I'm still alive, Doc. A bit humbled by the recent pps fall of AGNC and BMY, but I'm still here.

      • 2 Replies to xionrevolutions
      • << I'm still alive, Doc. A bit humbled by the recent pps fall of AGNC and BMY, but I'm still here. >>

        Don't know about BMY, Xion, but a thought about your AGNC call position. You might want to think about working them into a spread, which would, while capping your maximum potential profit, might allow you to sleep better at night (and give you a little more cash to work the next ex-div drop or SPO).

        As I recall, you had 587 SEP 34 calls @ 1.50, and 1516 DEC 34 calls @ 1.27. As this moves up in the next few weeks, you may consider selling some SEP calls, perhaps 36 strikes. Right now they're only at 12 cents, so I'd wait a bit, till you can get perhaps 40-50 cents. If you sold 587 SEP 36s, equal to your long position of SEP 34s, @ 40 cents you could generate $23k or so cash, after commissions.

        If the price spikes way up before SEP OpEx, you could sell the 34s, possibly for a profit, and you'd still be able to hold the short 36s now in a calendar spread with the long DEC 34's you're already holding.

        If Ex-Div comes before OpEx, then the 36s would probably expire worthless, and then you still got your DEC 34's for the run back up into Dec. Ex-Div.

        If the price is over 36 at Sept OpEX, then 587 of your 1516 DEC 34's are at risk to be called away, but at a 73 cent profit ($42K), and you've still got 929 them to ride out into December.

        Not a perfect solution, but at least it mitigates some of the extreme risk (total loss of capital) that you've found yourself in.

      • Hey X,

        >>A bit humbled by the recent pps fall>>

        It takes a good woodshed experience to learn that lesson I was preaching, about not going "all in". It usually takes actually losing the money for real, and not just getting scared though.

        Fortunately, for you and me..unfortunately for you, you should come out fine on both. I can't remember your BE on AGNC. I think it is about 35.25, is that right?

        I would be really surprised if we don't see that by Sept EX. I expect more, but I shouldn't say anything, because you might borrow or steal another stake to buy more, take you winnings, and then go "all in" on the next spo.

        None of that now...just sit tight for the Sept run...take what you can get and bet more wisely next time...Tough love, buddy...;-)


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