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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • turbofever turbofever Sep 10, 2012 1:08 PM Flag

    OT:ARR

    I am in the same boat, except I have a higher basis :(.

    Friday we saw ARR get up to 7.61 at its intraday high, so it's a bit frustrating to see it fighting for most of today between 7.57-7.58 with only 1 more day to go. For the past few mins it has been holding +3c (7.59), giving me hope of maybe getting back to that 7.61 later today.

    My .02c (or .05, in this case) is to banish the idea of 20c from your thinking, that's a huge rise relatively speaking for tomorrow. Also, offhand I don't think there's a precedent in the past few ex-div's for any significant rise in ARR in the last couple days before a div, in some cases it might have even lost a few cents on the final day before ex?

    My current thinking with a few hours left in the trading day is to TRY to force some discipline on myself, and sell half my options today (at a small loss), leaving the other half for whatever tomorrow may bring. I'm letting the hope-filled part of me have these last 3 hours to "wait" for a bump instead of just pulling the trigger now. Still a 20% chance though that I fail myself regarding "discipline" and let it all ride for tomorrow ;)

    I suppose one outside-chance/alternative line of thought, is that since we're only talking a 10c div.. It is quite possible for ARR to recover that within days, let alone the 1.5 weeks between Weds and 9/22 Options Expiration. Shouldn't they be establishing the Oct/Nov/Dec divs soon? That news will likely move the stock...

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