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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • onion1273 onion1273 Oct 5, 2012 10:48 AM Flag

    Jefferies: U.S Payrolls Numbers, 'Not Believable'

    By James Holloway
    Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) --

    • While 873k increase in household employment is “great news,” it is “highly suspect since it is the largest increase since January 2003,” Jefferies chief financial economist Ward McCarthy writes in client note
    • Notes 456k decrease in household unemployment
    • “It would truly be wonderful if these numbers were believable, but they are not believable”

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    • I agree. It's QUITE a coincidence that one month before election, the unemployment nomber suddenly drops below 8%. And, as we all have seen in the past with reports like this one, the number typically gets revised the following month (i.e., after the election). Watch, in November, that unemployment number will be revised to 8% again. Call me a cynic, but I find such reports to be not credible; in fact, rather INcredible, especially since large corporations recently (last month) surveyed indicated that they were NOT hiring because of the sluggish economy.

      Incumbent Presidents --- whether Democrat or Republican --- like to "manage" the numbers.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 2 Replies to alw59saw
      • The headline number " Unemployment Rate" is a bogus number. When people give up looking they are no longer counted.
        Change in Non farm payroll numbers are more important. we had 114k jobs created. We need 200+k jobs created per month just to keep up with the growing workforce. We have averaged 96k /month for the last is not getting better.

      • Just reading the data. It is interesting it dropped so much because labor force participation didn't drop. It went up 0.1%

        There were some revisions through from prior months that added more jobs.

        Anyhow.. ye a bit hard to beleive it fell so much given the numbers beings thrown around.
        But still, not a bad report.

    • Wow, the depth of analysis exhibited by Ward is amazing. I wonder if he's a Republican.

19.81+0.11(+0.56%)11:24 AMEDT