I was in on the IPO and early, remember this was touted as the next Annaly and it actually was or better. I remember posting on one of the messageboards it was the Apple of Mortgage REIT. I guess I was right, but like all stocks they have to be traded and when trends change you have to sell. I have traded this between 26 and 36, lots of back and forth, and this has been good to me, very good, but I am not going risk my principle in this type of market. The bubble is going to be pricked soon, be very very careful.
While people have flocked to REIT'S for yield due to uncertainty, it may have been a bad move. Protect your principle, taxes are going to 43-44%, meaning the largest holders of stock's, mutual funds will get hit with the higher taxes, hence they will sell. Another factor, earnings are expected to decline over the next year as quantitative easing continues to squeeze the yield spread. The 164% tax hike increase will likely result in very significant share price declines to return yields to their after-tax equilibrium levels. TARGET PRICE $18, DIV. $2 - $2.50.
Trends change at least once or twice a year... How about some sound advice instead of advice from your crotch based on fallacy? Here is one, mREITs were inflated and they historically always bounced around +/- 5% of book. Yield spreads cant keep constricting forever given how low interest current is. I think spreads will hold steady for a while and we will see a slight increase by April. All this sell off will be remembered as a golden opportunity just as it was last year and years before that.
As for your use of "bubble", what exactly are you referring to? Certainly there is no bubble in spreads and the inflated valuations have already popped. So where is this bubble you speak of? Market bubble? PE of S&P is well below norm. Earnings are in line the last year and we are about to enter on heck of a holiday season which will break last years records since retailers are extending black Friday and people are spending more than ever. Even housing is recovering. So again I ask, what bubble? Facebook maybe? I would agree but its just one company.