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  • ray858945 ray858945 Nov 9, 2012 9:23 AM Flag

    OT: Advice needed on AAPL (& on short puts)

    Potential Apple issues:

    [1] Competition has caught up ... only the Apple name sets it apart, and that may not justify the price difference.

    [2] Market becoming saturated at the high-end. Prices decreases likely.

    [3] New products? Apple TV requires cable support for some of the Apple advantage, and they may not want to get into a situation of subsidizing Apple like the telecom companies do.

    [4] Recent key executives defections leave people wondering.

    [5] And the key: Tim Cook may have many of Jobs' skills, but he is no Steve Jobs who was famous in the Valley for being a very tough demanding leader.

    I still think you get a dead cat bounce, but with the market so volatile ... who knows when and if. GL.

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    • I think at the end of the day, Apple is a cash-generating monster and has a great eco system. But investors are still adjusting to the realization that, absent any big surprises, Apple is transitioning from a highly innovative growth co to a blue chip.

      Add the exogenous risk of continued sell-offs for tax purposes (plus the larger fiscal-cliff fears, for that matter) and the fear inspired recently by lack of support for the falling stock price.. And we get a stock that I'd feel better about if I didn't have any positions in for now.

      So, I bought back my puts this morning while Apple is slightly in the green. Took a loss with a little sting, but not big in the scheme of things. The stock can go where it may but I'll stick with my conviction of mainly staying in cash for the rest of 2012, or until there is more transparency on some of the bigger issues confronting us.

      Thanks for the thoughts, & GLTA

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