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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • pc4me58 pc4me58 Nov 16, 2012 7:47 PM Flag

    This week was a test

    Every so often the market will seek out and punish investors that are too emotional and who haven't done their homework. This week the market brought that test to this sector. I hope those unfortunate enough to have sold have learned something, just as I hope those who had the strength of their conviction and bought, learned something.

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    • I'd hold off on the victory parade because I think the shorts learned how easy it is to take down the Mreits. It makes me think they will be back.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 4 Replies to hatedahft
      • Since you are telling others what to do, you should hold off on the short parade, its figs like you that think the shorts have unlimited resources. The idiots and amateurs are selling and shorting. they will get buried when AGNC is trading back above $34 this year.

      • So will the longs. Good for traders.

      • They may be back. But once again we are reminded that the sector will trade around book value. Plus/minus. But there will be a reversion to the mean. So when you get #$%$ who say that they will buy one of the better ones (AGNC for instance) down 40%-50% from book value, that creates panic. But always keep in mind that these REITs are giant customers of wall street firms. Those firms lend these guys many billions of dollars. These same firms may let the sector get too cheap, like this week. But they will also issue buy recommendations when that happens. Wall street has no interest in seeing this sector go away. The emotion this week was very interesting to watch. A lot of weak hands got shaken out.

      • Hey Hatedahft,

        Don't get swept away in the thinking that shorts had anything to do with last week. Go to shortsqueeze and note the volume of short interest this past week(under 4 million) which is the mean.

        Even at the 52 week highs in July at 12+ million, that would not have moved the dial much last week when roughly 75 million shares traded hands, from the weak hands to the strong. This was pure and simple panic selling, across the entire mReit sector. Great opportunity, which we might see again before the end of the year.



    • You say that but I thought I was sweating blood there for a few days especially since I had bought more right after the drop started. I just kept telling myself that the fundamentals seemed OK. However, I'm concerned that there will be a day when the Fed starts to raise rates and the stock price will tank and some will hold thinking that only the weak hands are selling and they will regret that they were thinking that after they realize that the price went a lot lower than they were willing to endure.

      Also, am guessing that some people bought calls back when the stock price was a lot higher than it is today and they are never going to see the light of day on them. You can’t keep jumping in and out or you will chase your own tail but then you need to be able to realize when things have changed for valid reasons as well and act accordingly. Because fearlessly holding will get you in trouble eventually because all stocks reach a point to where you have to sell them less you lose your shirt.

      Most companies are not like GE. GE is a rarity. Most companies go out of business eventually, or get bought out, often at a lower price than you paid for their stock. Even Microsoft and Intel are getting worried about whether the software and hardware trend in tablet computers is the writing on the wall for them. The android operating system is Goggles and the processors being used in the Android tablets are made by Nvidia and use the ARM architecture. Even Apple is switching over to the ARM architecture for their tablets. And now they are making ultra light notebooks with a regular display on the inside and a touch screen display on the outside so after you close it you can use it as a tablet computer. I’m sure that both Microsoft and Goggle want THAT style of computer to use their operating system as this may decide who has the notebook market in the future. And it is critical because many home owners and people in business as well are switching to notebook computers and thus whoever owns this market will sell most of the software and hardware in the future.

      I’m replacing my notebook computer I use at home and I asked them to install windows 7 and not windows 8. What was Microsoft thinking? I don’t think the surface flopped because of their tablet technology. That was OK though my ASUS transformer tablet is better with its HD display. It’s because of that goofy windows 8 interface. They were right to fire the windows division manager. He deserved to go.

      I can’t wait to get the new notebook. It has the i7 3840QM processor and a solid state drive. It should be brazenly fast. No more waiting a few minutes for the computer to boot.

    • Does this poem describe your meaning?

      Tail (intended) of the Bankrupt Trader

      I like to say I am "In the Know"
      I buy high and sell low

      When the price is high I always buy
      Traders say I'm quite the guy

      When I sell at 'bid'
      They buy real fast
      They also sell
      When I lose my 'ask'


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