I had those also last month at .45 credit. They are indeed the "safest" spreads for BE, out there, IMO. I saw them as too safe for my thoughts on AGNC's run and a waste of greater opportunity. Waste is maybe too strong of a word. With Short options there is always a risk in being assigned , no matter the strike. I will only allow myself to be assigned as many contracts as I can pay for. So, I need to be frugal in the allocation of contracts.
Your 80 contracts , if assigned, will need $240,000 to purchase or about $120,000 in cash. From previous posts, I know that is no problem for you, but others are reading.
Getting back to your "risk/reward" statement, I obviously disagree since I rolled out of that position of yours to avail myself of the opportunity for a higher run in PPS which I am expecting for AGNC. consevatively, the 33/30, for a 2.10 credit gives you a BE of 30.90, which is 1.20 higher than your BE, but it gives you 7x the reward, if we hit 33 by EX.
I used to trade the OTM spreads, which I agree, have a lower BE, and therefore less risk of not reaching your BE, but they place you actually more vulnerable on risk/reward(the ratio, which also has the reward side). The reason, as you already demonstrated, is if we have a cataclysmic event and end up at 29 or less at OPEX you lose over three times your credit. So you are risking over 3x your reward. If, on my suggested trade we end up at 30 or less, my trade risks less that .5x my credit. That is a 6x risk difference between the two trades, on loss of capital on cataclysmic event.
I was trading thousands of contracts and just came up nervous a few times thinking I am SOL if we go down much further by OPEX for this .20-.30 credit I was receiving.
So I understand your position, since I have been trading that way for the last couple of years. I recently changed and will let you know, by the 21st, if it paid off....this time....;-)
"I will only allow myself to be assigned as many contracts as I can pay for."
Good for you, because your broker is only holding 10% of the exercise price out of your margin. They'll let you get really wound-up on them, but "only" to 10:1 oversubscription of your ability to pay.
(NB: in this case the cash from the sold Puts is part of your margin but you spent cash on the bought Puts and their market value is not part of your margin...so the whole deal raised your margin by 30 cents and decreased it by $3. maintenance. on open you needed $6. you can only get to 5:1 on open all at once, but if you open in smaller trades you can approach 10:1. silly system, really.)
You want to go less than 1:1 against margin on anything that puts cash on you (long calls, short puts) also to avoid getting into trouble with "unsettled funds" for days after an exercise happens.
Brokers really should give you real-time indications of your margin and unsettled-funds situations, but they stopped doing useful work on their online presence a decade ago.