Besides the basic reason that I stated in an earlier post in this thread, the AGNC volume is much lighter than recent average; AGNC buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the dividend announcement (possibly because of all the dividend cut talk ... which is just that: talk). Also, some buyers may have been turned into sellers because they expected a dividend announcement by now (won't happen until 12/12 at the earliest; possibly as late as 12/17 --- see dividend announcement history for AGNC at Investor Relations) and are disappointed (perhaps thinking that a "delayed" announcement = dividend cut).
So much for the "dividend run" event. More like the dividend slide. For this stock to see $34 by ex div, it would have to gain an avg of ~ 50 cents per trading day to ex div. Not gonna happen IMO.
it'd be $36 if it gained .50/day from now to 12/19.
i see a bargain here.
traders have taken over for the day, and are not considering the future beyond the edge of their 1-day chart.
Wasn't Doc blaming NLY for dragging down AGNC? It looks like AGNC is the official dog of the day. Let's assume it is not market manipulation for a second. Who is selling at this discount to book value two weeks before EX?
It's Blue Chip day in the market. Mutual Funds and large institutional trading today is in the "big" name blue chips stocks (Microsoft, GE, Bank of America, etc.) are all up 1% - 2% today. Investors are pulling money out of other investments and betting on the Blue Chips (also means a lack of buying in the other stocks so that it becomes a seller's market in non-Blue Chippers today).
I think you've got it - this was my read as well. I looked for info and mostly saw a new resignation but that wasn't at the MBNA.
I conclude it is money moving around. I don't get a sense of panic that we had several weeks ago.
Still expecting $1.25 this Q, possibly a cut to $1.15 into next year though I think it can be sustained. I also think ARR will stay 9 cents Q1, and with Operation Twist ending the spreads will open up a bit even if the fed keeps QEInfinity rolling into the new year.
I'm assuming because of all the press last night about the Fed starting up another bond purchase (QE4).
But even this I'm not sure completely because this was known already.
MBS is not dropping today like someone posted. It's not that.
Like below only one is down a hair.
30YR FNMA 3.5 December 106-28 0-00
30YR FNMA 4.0 December 107-08 -0-01
30YR FNMA 4.5 December 107-28 0-00
MBS is selling off today, which is good for MREITS actually.. More wide spreads. But there is still a sell off today. Yes, i would imagine its people taking some risk off the table due to fears of a dividend cut. But I still do not believe this stock will fall below the $30 marker this month.