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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • reits_r_us reits_r_us Dec 26, 2012 4:38 AM Flag

    Post Christmas Musings

    So whats the verdict on the PPS as it appears my prediction will come true about the dance of the FC... debt ceiling, Medicare physician fix, defense cuts, Bush payroll, federal, corporate tax expiry, etc., etc, will not be fixed anytime soon...;-(

    3000 hit in the DOW, as Ray suggested, another threat on downgrading our debt by the friendly S&P?
    Further " help" by the gov't in increasing monthly MBS purchases? SEC ruling disallowing leverage by declaring mReits not entitled to the exceptions under the Investment Company Act. What was that Ephort or Rim, 3A or something. No matter. I try every month to find hints of their deliberations. Good luck to you with that!

    So we come to an interesting time in US history, especially in light of the mReit sector. I am looking for specific events myself to trade this fragile space. There will be opportunities, it will be our jobs to take advantage at the right time. I like Foxy and XX's market timing on BMY. Well done you two. I want Ray's timing on MTGE. Well done to you Ray!

    We have some savvy investors here with great skills. Angrad was good also, although he lost credibility with me regarding only having (I think), 4 losses in all of his trading career, including options. Well, I think the Fall MLP's handed him another one. Traders should have put up the big red flag bee.sss meter when anyone who has traded for years tells you that. Anyway, he's not here to defend himself, so I will leave it at that.

    I say we go down to the mid 28's to low 29's on weakness in Jan. Those numbers would move my hand to go Long AGNC again. Anything in the 27's would be manna and consumed in big gulps...;-)
    If we only get a fizzle and/or a cliff "deal" my guess is Jan OPEX as our low point and again a good entry point, IMO. As has been pointed out my advice is free, although I do accept donations to the DRRF( DocReitsRetirementFund), and should be regarded with the same value as the money you've paid.

    Those recently silly enough to think I take early positions and then pump you to do the same gives me quite the large head. Imagine ...the DocReits Fellowship Society! Has a nice ring doesn't it? I could sell T-shirts and cool stuff like door mats with my picture, with catchy inscriptions like "Let DocReits Rub Off on You, as you rub off on him" Or Coffee Mugs, with inscriptions like, " I made my dough by the guy eye know...DocReits". It could be a way to fund the DRRF. I'd be famous. Like Cramer with the cymbal. I could have a commercial made with me injecting a needle into a patient's eye with a cute nurse saying " Make some cash with DocReits and stop getting poked in the options!"

    I am encouraged and will for sure add this to my New Years Resolution List(NYRL).

    What are your plans for the New Year? Buy and hold, sell and hide, trade, be out in cash, or all in on the right opportunity. C'mon, share what you are doing. We'll only remind you later and laugh at you. Other than that you won't be hurt...;-)


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    • since the election, i hve been moving winners to cash, so i can pay a lower tax rate. they are going to find me wealthy, even though my gross take home wages are in teh mid 50's.

      i have then moved the cash into various preferred, and preferred-like tickers. some ST gains there, surprisingly. maybe i am not alone. early for a change.

      i did a lot of this back when they were debating the last increase in the ceiling. back then, i got back in about 2 weeks too early. this time i have a paper bag handy for breathing treatments.

    • Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. I mostly lurk and seldom post.

      I think that AGNC will tread water until more info emerges from the conference call after earnings. I believe that many big holders who were going to cash in chose to exit on Nov. 14 through 16 after the election. The fiscal cliff drama is mostly all priced in to the market.

      I have had AGNC in a retirement account and a cash account (different buys at $26.20 after a secondary to last week at 30.84) since a few days after the flash crash on May 6 2010. That means 7 quarters at $1.40 reinvested and 4 quarters taking the cash at $1.25 (so I've been paid back $14.80 since 2010). I sold HTS 2 days before ex div and put it back in to AGNC last week.

      Sure, I was tempted to sell some at 36, but I was there for the dividends . If I decide to trade, I will likely trade divy runs in a leveraged fund that has AGNC included rather than churn my existing shares, since I can't do options in a retirement fund. I wouldn't want to shoot myself in the foot playing options. Just staying within my comfort zone.

      Good luck to all, and thanks for the useful info from the regulat visitors here.

    • ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      I say we go down to the mid 28's to low 29's on weakness in Jan.

      The low 29's in January? How about this afternoon.

    • Doc and others,

      I hope you had a Merry Christmas and will have a happy New Year.

      I learned something on Friday. For the first time in my trading life, I put in a Market Order to sell my remaining AGNC Call options. Big mistake. I wondered if the dividend would put some upward pressure and sure enough it did after the quick sell off. Had I kept my sell order at $1.30 for my $30 calls I would have made out OK. As it was, they sold to close at $1.07. I took the biggest hit of my trading experience this quarter. Even though, I still cleared 169% for the year.

      Like bowerhunterron, I will wait for a VERY GOOD entry. This morning the stock is going lower, but the Jun Call Options aren’t following. I don’t foresee call option pricing to be very attractive this far out from the next dividend. I have the word DISCIPLINE in bold and capital letters distributed on my trading sheets to remind me of what I failed to do this past quarter.

      BTW, it wasn’t me that said anything about the “SEC ruling disallowing leverage by declaring mReits not entitled to the exceptions under the Investment Company Act.” If anything, I think it’s a mute point. On the other hand, I think there is a lot of ruff water ahead especially if our representatives continue to shirk their responsibilities. Why do we continue to send them back to Washington?

      GL2UA and go AGNC.


      • 1 Reply to rimboomer
      • Hey Rim,

        Agree with all you wrote. I am sorry I did not write a separate thread in the past on market orders. I have been burned and then burned again, and oh, burned once again...;-), with market orders in the past, esp with thinly traded options(mReits vs Big Pharma or techs(as an example)). Even then(with close bid/asks and lots of volume) you are left entirely to the whims and greed of the MM's. Congrats on the 169%..Whoopee and well done!! I guess that economics(?) degree is paying off...;-)

        ""Why do we continue to send them back to Washington?""

        My sentiments. I have developed a very 'near and dear' voting mantra, "Vote out the incumbents!!" Do you like it? Both parties..

        May your New Year Rim, be even more prosperous and healthy than 2012.


    • I am also planning to initiate my first position once we hit the 28s again. (leaving for seattle in 2 days though, so hopefully I'm not on the plane when this happens!) Doc are you just planning to go short puts (my plan) or are you going to possibly long the 30s as well which will probably go for around 0.90 at high 28s (I'm looking at March). This March should be a great time for short puts with an EX on the 15th. Shouldn't be nearly the nail biter it was this December.

      • 1 Reply to fit4life16
      • Au contraire, this quarter will be very much like the 4th Q 2012; because many investors will be expecting a dividend cut (as they wrongly did last quarter). That uncertainty will keep a lid on AGNC's stock price and on its options. Some directional indication will come in early February, when AGNC reports 4Q 2012 earnings. Fear of the unknown will guide 1Q 2013.

        Sentiment: Buy

    • Hey Doc,
      I think that ones sitting on the sidelines will be laughing just like I am at 34-36 buyers of 28 stock.

    • Doc I do not know if you follow stock technicals as a rule, but the 50 day moving average looks like it is about to go thru the 200 day moving average for the first time. Does that concern you or others?

    • Thanks for your rational post. I am currently into CFP for a while. Yes, I know about the return of capital thing but I am willing to take the risk as the ARR dividend was not going to make my car payment anymore. Demand sometimes requires risk. And no, I do not own a Cadillac, but rather a Dodge Journey. Best of luck to all in the new year. Jim

      Sentiment: Sell

    • Good morning Doc! I'm stuck in Apple options for a while more, and sitting heavy in ARR, with some cash & a lot of margin available should AGNC dip below $28.

    • bowhunterron Dec 26, 2012 5:33 AM Flag

      Good Morning Doc, what are we doing awake already? ;) My plans remain the same as last year, which is remain in a total cash position, and only making trades with a definite entry and exit time, always returning to a cash position. I will trade options when there is enough interest, and stocks when there isn't. I am thinking going short in the short term and don't have a long term. Best of luck to all of us in 2013, and thanks to you and some other traders who share their skills and logic. Please don't stop sharing, just because some folks are complaining and blaming. In the end each individual is responsible for pushing their own buy or sell button. There are many here who learn from you and the other experienced traders.

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