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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • xionrevolutions xionrevolutions Jan 2, 2013 10:14 PM Flag

    OT: LINE ... is anyone planning to trade LINE on this dividend run up?

    I don't have any money in LINE right now. I'm planning to build a position in LINE next week (next Wednesday - Friday), I kind of sense that the market might open lower tomorrow...once this Fiscal Cliff Deal "euphoria" has worn off...but I may be wrong. It might take a week for it to go away and investors in general will realize that the economy is very much in the same spot it was 1 year ago. I'm hoping to see the pps of LINE go down to $36 - $36.25 before I start building a position in LINE $35 February13 Calls.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • "and investors in general will realize that the economy is very much in the same spot it was 1 year ago."

      We hopefully have learned in the last year that market sentiment trumps a nice dividend on the way. And to drive sentiment, there are plenty of articles telling us the cliff is not over and we have a credit downgrade coming if brinksmanship dominates the debt ceiling politics. It might not be a bad idea to accumulate silver for the day of the piper.

      I am thinking the way to play the market this year is to buy puts when exhuberance is high and sell puts and buy calls when in darkest of days. Even I get spooked when there seems to be no light. As you suspect, there will be some swings to take advantage of.

      Today's rally was much like the one in Sept when Uncle Ben announced QE3. I positioned myself with weekly strangles before his announcement. The subsequent rally lasted for three days when I thought it would be only one. If we count monday's expectation as day one, tomorrow could be the last day and then selling begins on friday. Selloffs are relentless. A few hundred dollars spent on otm puts might not be a bad idea for those suprise bear sessions that can spring suddenly and last weeks.

      This reminds me of hopping from log to log on a river drive. That's midwest surfing.

      Hey do you cure your own bacon off them wild hogs you shoot? It is not hard to do and well worth it.
      Dry cure gives the best control.

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