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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • faaqcee faaqcee Jan 11, 2013 4:20 PM Flag

    OT: SCCO

    Hey, does anyone(attn.: chartists)think that SCCO is a potential short candidate?
    I'm not big into shorting, but:

    The last 3yrs. SCCO has dropped over 22% in each year from Jan. and July, while recovering throughout the remaining months.

    SCCO ended 2012 at a high.

    SCCO just payed 2.75 on their last dividend:
    and a dividend declared lower sometimes seems to spur a decrease in a stock's pps, even if that dividend is impossible to maintain.

    SCCO has been on fire since it DID declare that 2.75 dividend and is due for a pullback.

    Sleger, you are a SCCOer, what do you think?
    Each and every opinion I get will help me to #$%$ the situation.


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    • SCCO down another 1.3% since last post at 36.27.
      Can it drop further?
      Short or not, I'm buying SCCO if/when it gets back to 28.50.

      Still no Sleger??
      Where you at,
      and what are you getting into?


      • 2 Replies to faaqcee
      • gone for two weeks on a job in Arkansas.Just got back home to 11 degree warmth and even more snow cover.
        Managed to find a computer to close my agnc calls on friday, nice profit. Secret was to buy right as the run was anemic.

        SCCO, current PE at 15 looks high for a miner, to the market. Without examining the latest 10k I can't give any opinion. For long long hold, probably the best in mining.

        I am holding calls in ALKS, NCT, and WMC mostly. [WMC is the only equity in which I hold shares.] I like ALKS the most for steady price appreciation. The only concern I have is that it has been mentioned by Cramer. If you get it below 23 you will make money. I think it will modulate around 23 for another month making short term trades for .35 gains possible, as it gets moved about by the players. Buying on margin on a dip, but never shorting.
        With Alkermes, the algo guys always drive it down just before earning, that is when to load up. Next earnings is near the end of april.

        Puts in TIF, BMY, LLY, As they move up I roll the puts forward each month before theta losses are too much. None of those three has a good prognosis to support the new highs. It could be five months before payday on those. Another short I am holding is the educator UTI whose enrollment has been dropping and they can't sustain their profit margin with tricks any longer.

      • SCCO down yet again to 36.05.
        I wish I had had big enough "jingles" to keep the short active.

    • I hate to short,
      especially a great company like SCCO.
      Its chart almost told me to do it though.
      I don't know if it was my conscience or my lack of bravery which made me cover so quickly.

    • SCCO is now at 36.75
      If I make a good plan I doubt myself, but I try like heck to make a bad one wook.

      P.S. This MB needs a flush.

    • Is this the start of SCCO's yearly swoon?

    • Last winter I thought SCCO would go over 40 by January2013 opex. but world economic conditions did not support that idea by june.
      When ever an equity ventures into new highs while the world watches and waits, is probably an ok short. I made a few hundred on it with puts just after they paid the div. I don't remember how I made the decision to close them out, something about an intuitive read on the chart. It was a small window of opportunity.

      There are a lot of things about SCCO I like. Probably the most sound mining play in the markets. The move I like to do, but I am required to support puts with cash when I write them, is to write puts on a favorite stock during a big dip and buy calls with the premiums. I did that with Bank of America last sept and closed out in dec. It was dicey though. It saved my skin from devastating losses. If we get a cliffy dip in the next two months I will do that with WMC in my wife's account. I just got her into cash this week. My son asked me to manage 20k for him in december. I sold puts on whz and bought calls. Just closed them out for 3500 profit. I have him sitting long on some WMC that we just sold calls against. Figure they will expire with the lack of enthusiasm in that sector. I am less aggressive with other people's money than I am with my own.

      For something to short, Whirlpool looks juicy if you pick your timing. Sometimes when a stock is acting real strong you think it will never visit old territory, but look at agnc which was supposed to be a good old reliable safe haven in turbulent markets. We jumped all over that poor fella for shorting this summer, but if he did not panic, probably made out. Oh no I think he shorted at about 32 and probably did not hang on through xdiv. when it hit 37.

      Massively overpriced equities that don't have to follow the valuation rules kept going up, even during cliff talks, amazon, crm. Experienced short speculators often say the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

    • Chartwise it was short term overbought but appears to have been working that off. A pullback to an oversold oscillator area or the bottom of a price envelope would not give much of a reward/risk opportunity. One thing for sure with only 1.32% shares currently short you would be in lonely company.

19.52-0.26(-1.31%)Sep 28 4:00 PMEDT