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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • ovicp ovicp Jan 16, 2013 5:08 PM Flag


    SPO 19 million shares, KMP divy up 11%.

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    • Hey Guys!
      This was the first NTI thread.
      It was started by ovi.
      While the thread quickly morphed into a bullish thread, re-reading it makes me think that ovi was BEARISH on NTI.

      A few weeks and a few trades in, I've managed to recoup 47% of my original NTI shares purchased at a cost-basis of 23.68(@29, currently UP 22.5%!!) per share.
      The "spo" and a seemingly too quick rise in NTI's pps caused me to be overly cautious with this previously unknown-to-me entity.
      Also, NTI was exhibiting a "heartbeat pattern" of a few %pts per day, from the spo until early last week.
      Anyone loading at close then unloading most in the next mid-morning,
      then repeating each day from the date of this leading thread
      until a few days ago,
      for the most part must have made a killling.

      I tried this but was 3 days late to the party. :(

      Still, I'm in,
      and am VERY HAPPY to initiated and maintained participation in this here NTI stock runup.

      Thanks again ovi. ;)

      P.S. Hey Ray!
      It's possible that your Tahitian Treat can be extended indefinately if this keeps up:
      25000x2.00 per quarter can de-sand many cracks and crevices for a long time. :)
      The over 22% return so far is hardly lime juice to the eye as well.

      When you buy the Brando Estate I'm expecting an invitation I "couldn't refuse".

      I'll move to the other side of the island and live in a small hut... but with a full kitchen :)
      Fresh seafood and wild boar works for me.

      You'd never see hide nor hair of me,
      unless by choice,
      save the appearence of a pineapple upside-down cake occasionally and not-so-mysteriously at your generous and sharing threshhold. :)

      Go NTI!

    • I just bought some NTI at 24.50.
      I fiddled around at 24.35 and it got away from me.
      It might go back down and probably will, now that I conceded.

      I like the idea of a spo with no new shares.
      How novel.
      That's why I bought.

      Thanks for the informative thread guys.
      Here's to a quick recovery,

    • Wow.
      NTI shares down 4% so far today.

      Doesn't it seem fishy that such a high dividend was paid last quarter and before the CEO retires and sells his shares?

    • Here is some notes on NTI when I did some research back in early Dec 12.

      From the prospectus:

      "We expect within 60 days after the end of each quarter, beginning with the quarter ending September 30, 2012, to make distributions to unitholders of record on the applicable record date. We expect our first distribution will include available cash (as described below) for the period from the closing of this offering through September 30, 2012.

      We do not intend to maintain excess distribution coverage for the purpose of maintaining stability or growth in our quarterly distribution or to otherwise reserve cash for distributions, and we do not intend to incur debt to pay quarterly distributions. We expect to finance substantially all of our growth externally, either by debt issuances or additional issuances of equity. "

      From the 3Q12 Earnings release:

      "Energy LP, declared a prorated quarterly distribution of $1.48 per unit payable in cash on November 29, 2012 to common unit holders of record at the close of business on November 21, 2012"
      "Prorated cash available for distribution totaled $136.1 million for the third quarter 2012. As noted in Northern Tier Energy's IPO prospectus, the cash available for its first distribution includes cash for the period from the closing date of the IPO (July 31, 2012) through September 30, 2012"

      So the latest divy was 1.48 which cost the company 136.1M. If I prorate the 1.48 divy to 3 months the divy would be .88. 3Q12 total cash from operations was 175M (92M units out) or 1.90 per unit. That amounts to a implied 15.1% divy yield. (early Dec prices).

      • 1 Reply to bovisutor
      • You are misreading their last earnings announcement. If you look at their distribution calculation issued November 12, they backed out $60 million from cash available for distribution based on funds prior to IPO to reach the $136 available subsequent to IPO and the $1.48 distribution was based on only 2 months of earnings. Assuming same performance in 4rth quarter, prorate that up to to $2.24 for a full quarter.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Thank you. NTI stock offering does not yield any money to the company. Therefore, I believe the stock is being sold by the CEO who is retiring right now [new CEO will be the other founder]. If correct, then the stock is not increasing the amount outstanding, just who owns it [the numbers I could find support this]. The dip in the price today is therefore not justified, and will disappear soon. Paid about a buck and a half last quarter on a $25 stock. Limited Partnership.

    • Are you not 10 mil too high

20.275+0.095(+0.47%)12:24 PMEDT