OK , this board has a fine group of lucid, saavy, intelligent individuals.
As many of you know I am a bond guy not a stock guy. Since bond yields are down and my maturing bond proceeds are going more and more into divi paying stocks, I find my self quite giddy with this rally.
2012 gave me a total return of 12.35% on my portfolio -When I was all bonds (2009) my goal was 6-7%
Any prognostications for me, will stocks continue?
I am in many mREITS, cREITS, MLPs, and CEFs is it probable for me to see double digits again in 2013.or am I kidding myself.
Onion, you're an income guy! Not a gains guy. You make your real gains with job income and commish, and then bank it vs gamble it. Probably live like a buddhist monk.
You want names? Nah, you should probably go toward ETFS and play the macro trends. Names have extra risk.
You could just keep doing what you are doing, and just watch the market and pull out when the Fed starts raising rates, wait for the resulting correction/crash, and then buy everything back, maybe with an emphsis on ETFs at a 20-50 % discount at the trough..
Its all about the Fed, and the Fed will need to start removing accomodation this year, is my guess
The market is like an apparently insane driver, if he sees danger ahead in the road, he laughs and accelerates into it to enjoy the resulting thrill of the obviously coming horrific crash. To you and I the driver appears insane! but he knows he is immortal and will rise out of the ashes of the crash to live and race again.
You learn to ride with the driver and jump out right before impact.
I plan on retiring in 2 yrs. So no long term growth plays for me.
My philosophy has been if I am getting enough in divis and interest on a monthly basis to live on, should I really care what the market value is?
I looking for monthly income. So I try not to let the market value swings to bother me but like I said I am very giddy about 2012. Id love to see more of that + a rise in rates over the next 2 yrs.
That would allow me to swap out of riskier divi stocks and back into less risky preffy's and bonds.
Onion do you read Barrons? Every week there are articles with Bulls and Bears,predicting ups and downs. No one knows what the future holds. You must put yourself in a position that you are comfortable with and then change and modify as it pans out. The guys that think they have the sure fire thing put their eggs in and hit it big or end up selling pencils.
A lot of us on this board appreciate the catbird seat you have in the bond market and value your insights along these lines. If you get attacked for your inside information, it's from those who don't know what you are talking about. Please keep the good info coming.
The relative (strength) performance of the small cap sectors early in the year is a pretty good indicator of earnings growth continuing. Why? because it means strength is at a point where a company does not have to be a global player to increase revenue. The drag for the small ones this year is absorbing the consulting fees and system changes with the changing healthcare requirements.
Watch consumer discretionary sector for continued signs of confidence.
It has been highly informative having your "bond centric" experience/expertise on the AGNC message board. Savvy investors are always looking for that "extra" piece of information that will tilt the field in their favor. A better understanding of the bond market should give us a little more insight into AGNC's corporate strategy. Thanks again.