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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

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  • reits_r_us reits_r_us Jan 28, 2013 6:19 PM Flag

    OT...EPD

    Hey Freak,

    Thanks! I like the same play on ETP as on EPD and KMP. There has hardly been 1 EX in the past two years that has not shed approx 3.00 post EX within the next three trading days, from the pre-EX high PPS. There's your double on the PPS-1 strike for the Feb Put. Watch out for the adjusted options on the Feb contract.

    The other interesting item on ETP is the low date post EX. It almost always(85%) falls within the first 5 trading days post EX. The low being most often on the day after EX and the next most common on the 5th day post EX. This has not been true in only 4 Q's going back to 2009. So I am thinking to sell on the close of one day post EX, if I have my double. If not close with profit/loss on the close of 5th day post EX.

    Best,

    DocReits

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    • Hey Doc,

      I went ahead and closed out of my ETP long positions this afternoon - didn't really like the way it was acting today relative to the rest of the market (and most of the energy sector names). Will be watching Monday/Tuesday for that short opp.

      Good luck,
      Freak

      • 1 Reply to reit_freak
      • Freak -

        You mentioned shorting ETP for a drop after ex. In doing so, check out the other MLPs that have gone ex ahead of it. Some that I follow are KMP, EPD, EPB, CPNO, PAA and WPZ are (as I type this) are all above their pre-dividend adjusted closes (meaning the close on DBEX minus the dividend). CQP is below theirs.

        Today MWE and MMP went ex. At this time, they are below their pre-dividend closes but not by much.

 
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