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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • salipenta salipenta Jan 29, 2013 11:50 AM Flag

    nly vs agnc

    I'm interested in investing some new money. Already hold agnc and was thinking of picking up some nly to diversify. NLY is trading below book presently and if history is any indicator investors who bought nly below book have done well. Or can we expect more divvy cuts in nly and lower share price. Not asking for advice, just interested in thoughts of the knowledgable folks on this board.

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    • Go to 'basic technical analysis" on this Yahoo site for AGNC. Under the box 'compare" type in any mReit you can think of including NLY. For example, TWO, MTGE, WMC, IVR, ARR, HTS, etc., etc.

      Check any time frame..1yr, two year, etc. After that revelation, then compare how many Q's they have all cut their dividends since, say, Dec 2009(8 for NLY!).

      After that check out how much NLY made for the investor from Jan 1, 2012 through close Dec 31, 2012, with dividends. I'll help, they made 2.05 in dividends and lost 2.03 in capital appreciation, for a grand total of a whopping two cents. That's even more that NLY is worth. That's my two cents ...;-)


    • put NLY on your stk. radar screen - news about it are regular -
      they seem to think - the future looking up for NLY -
      I own both - - good luck investing !

      • 1 Reply to k50cents
      • Tough call. Your right, it's really cheap compared to the reits I track for P/B.
        If your in for the long run, maybe a good time to buy.

        My guess though on Q4 earnings which are imminent they will not be great because they didn't close the Crexus deal and probably haven't dived much into non agency.
        They are still flipping a ton of their portfolio to CPR and Selling Agency MBS for proft and it's killing them to have to go replace that with the over priced MBS.
        Probably they did some or all of their buy back which might help buoy Q4 a bit.

        Normally I would never recommend this stock.
        Doc is right.
        It's done terrible compared to the better mreit stocks over the past few years.
        And quite frankly their management just stunk and missed the boat on what to do about the QE's the fed has thrown at it.

        But at least their is a glimmer of hope for NLY.
        Maybe they will close the Crexus deal sooner or later here.
        They should hopefully branch into more non agency.
        Mortgage rates may have bottomed.
        MBS prices are down about a point recently and maybe about 1.5 - 2 points of their all time high.

        I've been contemplating picking up the JAN14 or JAN15 $15 calls on NLY myself.

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