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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • xionrevolutions xionrevolutions Mar 13, 2013 9:46 PM Flag

    OT: 1,288 LINE July13 $35 Calls ....

    This morning I was able to exit my 2,106 AGNC for an average sell price of 1.99. I then went back into LINE and I purchased 1,288 LINE July13 $35 Calls @ 3.40 each. I hope to be able to sell them on the coming April dividend run up for 4.00 at least...if LINE reaches $39...or for 5.00 each, if LINE goes up to $40 per share. I'm just letting my friends here know where I'm at and what I'm buying and selling. I'm happy to be back = )

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • You will be back in the money before you know it. I still see it reasonably hitting the mid 39s by ex-dividend.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Xion with the recent decline in price I have an open order for short July 19 35 puts. I also have a similar trade in agnc that i have yet to fill. I am into NTI short puts at the moment. I feel we should hit 39.50 before ex div. Keep holding them you are only down a bit.

    • Bump................

    • Bumpppppppppppp

    • Bump...

    • Hey X,

      That's an "All In" trade on LINE isn't it? I assume you have about 450,000 dollars and that took care of it on that purchase. What about the talk about not betting the whole wad on one trade. It will bite you in the end my friend...

      As always, I wish you success...;-)


      • 2 Replies to reits_r_us
      • Hi Doc,
        That's a great post, I hope X reads it many times over.

        Hey X, you are playing Russian roulette man,you need to read Doc's post/advice/warning many times , because it sounds like its the last one, he is giving up on you, he's been trying to help you for a long time.. I wish you luck on all your trades and I wish you the best.

        Doc, I also hope many folks will read your post and benefit from your eloquent advice. Your thoughts and trading ideas have been so helpful, I thank you.

        I closed my ARR trade with $.10 profit a few days ago and will be looking for low entry when the dust settles with their divi reduction.... Today and tomorrow I'm closing my AGNC calls for a nice profit and I'm thinking of buying ITM calls at par ( if possible) on EX . I'm thinking now that the SPO is out of the way we might get a quick recovery, what do you think?

        Best of luck,

      • X,

        Each trade is unique and carries with it its own new set of variables. If you bet with measured doses on high probability outcomes you will win over time(Gambling House strategy). If you bet the majority of your money on random unique trades(that is what each new trade is, including your 1/2 million bet on LINE...unique and totally random), you eventually will lose. It is just the nature of uncertainty, and the way folks go from riches to is only a matter of time.

        If LINE has a bad news event or plain catastrophe, drops to 30.00, until July OPEX you just kissed that 1/2 million away. Many, including Buffet, are presently removing their money from the market as they anticipate an imminent major market correction. Will it happen? Who knows? That is the nature of one knows. That is the beauty of measured bets.

        You learned nothing, just as I said would be the case last Dec. I said, when you were suffering the loss of 225,000, that you would bet everything again, because the euphoria of a few wins , very often clouds a trader's judgement into thinking future trades will be profitable. So you bet larger and larger stakes until, boom, the losing trade shows up again. Boom and bust it is called. Oldest emotional trader's roller coaster around.

        You might win on LINE and reach the 1 million mark. What difference does it make? You will bet the whole stake on the next trade. Uncertainty wins in the end.

        So, for others(I have given up on X) trade with my Crumbs model on slow wealth building or bet everything you have, like X, and "Go for the Gold". It is more entertaining to watch the latter(except for me as I was rooting for X to become a disciplined trader). It is much more profitable(long term) to trade the former. Those encouraging him to reach his million in one trade do him no favor.


19.89-0.190(-0.95%)Oct 27 4:00 PMEDT