If i may continue on with Jess's point, history says on average that transacting at the open vs close matters a bit. Of the past 26 cycles, I get
enter open ex+4 / sell open ex-2: 2.35 (avg. 0.090 / mo.)
enter close ex+4 / sell open ex-2: 2.85 (avg. 0.110 / mo.)
enter open ex+4 / sell close ex-2: 2.94 (avg. 0.113 / mo.)
enter close ex+4 / sell close ex-2: 3.44 (avg. 0.132 / mo.)
This information, while historical, is again misleading, because as I and Jess have said averages are often very deceptive for current trading. Your examples are a case in point. For example on the difference in exit points on X-2 between Open and Close.
Most of the outliers(3 SD from the median) occurred at or before the Sept 2009 quarter's EX date. Remove those two and the "average" favors exit on the open. Do we want to follow 4 year old data, or more current? Second, frequency. Out of 20 quarters only 7 had closes that beat the opens, with again 4 of the7 occurring @ or before Sept, 2009. Finally on 13 quarters out of 20 the Opens won, whereas the "average" favors the closes.
Averages tell you something but often of little practical use without observing other factors.
Bought 150 Apr 32c for 45 cents... I like the way AGNC has been behaving, and think that this is one of their low days... I plan to buy Jun calls for the next divvy run in a 1-1.5 months. I don't think we will have an SPO this quarter, given we just had one and they tend to do them every 3-6 months.
Yup. Absent visibility into the market's random influence, it doesn't make a lot of sense to get too long when there's a SPO coming, and it makes no sense not to get long when the SPO has hit and the div run is coming.
Long-term interest rates are headed for 4%, and short-term rates are still being pinned to the deck. Spreads are getting big, and the mREITs are going to want to get more busy.
Hey, Onion -
A very quick look for last 3 years, shows -
4 times on x+4
1 time on x+3
1 time on x+1
Collectively 6 times (50%) within the first 4 days
3 times (25%) between x+33 and x+38
3 times (25%)between x+8 and x+16
I don’t know which to pick!