As many know I have a penchant for digging into the machinations of predictors for market movement. In particular I look for changes in trend. I am not so interested in short whipsaw changes as I am on continuation patterns.
I think we have the quintessential offsetting examples of AAPL vs GOOG. I submit that the very simple model I am about to submit works for most stocks including our beloved AGNC. Hence the lack of OT on the Topic headline.
I have mentioned before about using a 28 day SMA. You simply buy when the PPS crosses above the 28 day and sell when the PPS crosses down over the 28 day. As a better predictor for when to trade, so you reduce whipsaw, is by combining the 28 day SMA crossover with the MACD crossover above and below the zero line.
Look at GOOG and then AAPL on the 3 or 6 month to start and then other stocks of your choosing. Is it 100%? No. Does it make money for you, esp on big moves....you judge....;-)
I have used the 28 day SMA for some time now. There is a website that can email you when the EOD 28 day crossover takes place. the free website is called Zignals. I believe the last email was sent to me on April 4.