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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • reits_r_us reits_r_us Apr 25, 2013 2:32 AM Flag

    Randomness

    Hey,

    When an event occurs over and over repeatedly folks learn to expect that event to occur again. The vending machine example. If you put your dollar in the vending machine each day and receive your reward(soda, candy, whatever), you "learn" to expect that reward every time you place your dollar in the machine. You think you have not been programmed? Think again.

    Try placing your dollar in the machine just one time after this "conditioning" period. The studies have been done. It is a classic example of conditioning. The subject will "never" on average(.05) try again, until a long time has expired. We call this a very quick extinction.

    This is such a great example of those resistant to being constrained to a model like Glad, which dispenses the reward over 90% of the time on the Cornerstone stocks and 96.6% of the time on Nveen's JTP. There is something sick(in the nonpejorative sense) about that type of consistent reward. There is an occasional loss,,just like the vending machine, with a really rapid extinction(quitting trading) on the model.

    I was just thinking about the hundred or so folks who have written to me asking for the Rules and expressing their desire in trading the Glad model and the interesting lack of interest expressed openly on the board. I think the other psychological factor enters here on this board with the few who post, in relation to the many who listen(My guess is 1/500). That is quite an audience. I think many who post are independent and thus like to be the skippers of their own ships. They could get a cool one from the vending machine, if they wanted, but they would rather do their own fishing. Others do not want to obey Rules which I have addressed before. Still others subliminally enjoy losing, which I addressed today on another thread.

    Another psychological experiment which those who ever took Psychology 101 have heard about is the monkey who got rewarded on an intermittent schedule of reward. A lever was pulled (cont)....

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    • Hey Sledge –

      RE: Your post buried way down below in this thread.

      I once posted that you were the most respected poster on this message board. And after reading your most recent post of today, I continue to be highly impressed. Even Doc referenced your significant contributions in yet another different thread.

      The best part is that I actually got your reference – I think that’s truly amazing for an "Old Codger" like me :-)
      I met B.F. while I was doing my post graduate work……. Small world, isn’t it (rhetorical question)

      However, even though I fully respect your posted trades and information, I feel it necessary to bring up one small point. B.F. worked with rats……. “Aww, rats!” – Charlie Brown :-)
      Not pigeons as you have suggested. Perhaps you were trying to make some other type of analogy…???

      Please continue to post your wisdom such that it benefits all who wish to learn from you – including me :-)

      All The Best,
      Salty

      • 2 Replies to saltynacho
      • I am sorry Salty,

        But I believe you underestimate Luke's(Slegermark) depth,

        He has many pathways of cognitive dissonance I see traversing his post. He packs in so much in such a small space that I have to re-read to find all of the Waldos, and then I know I am probably missing some I have't noticed.

        Luke is a chemist if I remember properly,( PhD, or not?). but has a broad science base from talking to him in the past. His reference to Skinner was for the behavioral piece I started this thread off with, and had nothing to do with pigeons.

        That whole twist was in the actual experiments with pigeons(correct me Luke if I am off base) and in their(avian) similarities to humans in both anatomical structure(frontal lobes..PFC) and cognitive memory. See the referenced study:

        Avian NCL and Mammalian PFC: Homologue or Analogue?

        The NCL is a multimodal telencephalic region located in the posterior forebrain of birds. Divac and colleagues [28,29] were the first to suggest that the avian NCL might correspond to the mammalian PFC. Naturally, given almost 320 million years of independent evolution [35], there are some differences between the two structures. Most notably, the NCL is neither cortex nor in the frontal (i.e., anterior) part of the brain, but then topographical location is a poor criterion for comparing structures [36]. Although the NCL and PFC are not homologous structures [36], the evidence we review below does suggest that they are analogous structures.

        Both NCL and PFC are ideally situated to integrate sensory information and translate that information into action. Anatomically, the NCL and PFC have similar patterns of afferent and efferent connections [31]. Both receive projections from modality-specific secondary visual, auditory, and somatosensory areas [31,37–39], and both project to motor and limbic areas of the brain [31,37]. In .addition, both the NCL and PFC receive dense dopaminergic innervation from midbrain structures [29,40,41]. (cont).....

      • oooppppssss........ please make that - Hey Sleger
        It's past my bedtime :-)

    • Yo Doc,

      While I don't always follow you into your trades,
      I do often follow your posts, enjoy reading them,
      and appreciate the time and effort it takes to compose these tidy sharings of brilliance.

      With limited funds and a game plan already in hand,
      I have been unable to try my hand at GLAD as of yet.
      But,
      I just sold my 2nd quarter's NMM holding(at 14.88).
      It took a little more of a hands-on approach it was almost as profitible for me as the 1stQ's go-around.

      From what I've read, even though you might have used your "system" for some time,
      it is relatively new to this board.
      I've seen you post the success rate for past returns and I was wondering if you have the "stats" for the GLAD entries and exits ONLY from the time since you were so kind to bring it into light.
      If I'm not mistaken there were only a few times this has occured.
      Since I wasn't playing, I didn't read all of the GLAD posts.
      It's nice to have others also moniter the charts for any GLAD trigger.
      It's like a GLAD club.
      Nice.
      So Guys,
      How many "ins and outs" has the GLAD club been able to transact so far?
      The many GLAD posts are scattered and many, but I have the one with the "rules" in my favorites.

      Since I'm done with NMM for another 2mths or so,
      after a little sprucing up on the rules I think I may join your club. :)

      Thanks again,
      FOXY

      • 3 Replies to faaqcee
      • bowhunterron@ymail.com bowhunterron Apr 26, 2013 12:42 PM Flag

        I just read this post, last cycle my performance was 3&1/2 times better than holding for the div. This cycle I am in 5 of the SS, I missed out on JTP on its first day of eligibility and decided to wait for it to come to me, it never looked back and I didn't chase. Congrats to those who got it the first day, it will be a winner. I am in FSC,ARR,CRF,CLM, and CRP. I didn't maintain my discipline on CRP, did my own thing and bought it early on trader intuition and bought too early and payed too much, my stupid. Some times I still have a hard time staying disciplined to the model when something looks really good. In spite of my lack of discipline on CRP, I am up nicely on everything else and anticipate returns comparable to last cycle. If I would have followed the model better, I would be doing even better. I am a believer in the model. Bow

      • Hey Foxy,

        I think Bow is keeping score, so he would be your "go to" goal keeper.

        I have changed the line up of the starters over the past few months so I give you approximations here which might be off depending on what team members you are rooting for. I recently went to an all star team, meaning those producing at least an 80% historic win rate.

        That eliminated or cut MAIN, PSEC and now FSC. It has left an all star team of CLM, CFP, CRF, JTP, ARR and now a mystery stock with a 100% historic win rate. This now will place this SS(sweet six) at over a 90% average historic monthly win rate.

        I think BOW stated that last month cleared $1.36, on the old SS. This month, I am up .45 on FSC, .10 on ARR, .12 on PSEC, .19 on JTP, .08 on CRF, .03 on CLM and .03 on CFP. These last three I just bought yesterday.

        So, I think that is about 1.00. I personally trade 6,000 to 35,000 shares of each and add on 10 cent declines. I average a little over 10,000 shares(I have 30,000 shares of FSC currently), which is over 10,000/month on just Glad/10, which I have changed from Glad/3% , as I no longer use the 3% Rule. I use 10 cent declines instead, on each of the new SS all star team...;-)

        Anyways, send me an e-mail @ DocReits@ gmail:c:o:m:, without the colons, of course, and I will send you a condensed version of the easy to follow rules.

        Welcome to Glad/10!

        DocReits

      • Hey, Foxy -
        I am currently in my second month of being a dues-paying GLAD club member. I don't have really good history to share, but of the 6 completed trades, 5 wins, 1 loss (PSEC in March). I'm pretty convinced it works as advertised, BUT....Doc has made it clear, many times, that you have to play every month, as this is a probability thing and if you try to pick your months, you will "probably" mess up ;)

    • I think I am speaking here for all those who enjoy reading your posts (but are not frequent posters themselves).

      We have made money following your patient teaching and guiding - thanks for the copy of your Rules!

      That you would freely share the results of your research, is indeed very valuable to those of us who choose to follow (others can read and not take action - their LOSS!!).

      Thanks!

    • Three questions:
      1. Have you been reading Mark Douglas's book again?
      2. Who are you calling a monkey?
      3. Why do I have the urge to get a banana? :)

    • Hey Doc -

      It has been my experience garnered over a long period of time - I am as you say, an Old Codger :-) - that the harder one tries to sell something, the more reluctant the potential buyers become.

      I am fully supportive of your "what"......... however you might want to consider revising your "how"!

      Psychology 101 has taught us all that human beings want what they can't have. :-)
      Prohibition of alcohol is an excellent example.

      I would propose that you try the "secret recipe" approach.
      Everyone in the world wants to know whats in that "secret recipe"..... and only you have the answer!

      Or try the "puppy dog" close :-)

      Food for thought, I hope.

      As Always..........
      All The Best,
      Salty

      • 1 Reply to saltynacho
      • Hi Salty,

        I guess I no longer need the how as far as dollars go because I woke up and realized I no longer need to work. It sneaked up on me suddenly how I now make much more money than I have ever done as a doctor(trading). It did take me by surprise because I wasn't paying that much attention.

        The market surprisingly has always had as much money as one is willing to take. It is just a matter of the knowing and then the taking. There will always be those who continue to buy high and sell low, and those of us who rejoice in that reality.

        The how, in non monetary terms is that I love to teach, always have. I am in the process of developing my own web page, which will be a no cost(you get what you pay for...-;)) rant on more of the same option and trading and psychology/philosophy drivel that has leaked out here.

        I will miss insulting Walrus, YBF, doctor_sickens and others as they are such fun targets....you are harder because you think laterally which is always more of a challenge...;/-) (that was a lateral smile and an indirect compliment)

        The abrasive side of me(you get what you see) will always be here and it is too late for reform. So much for the "soft"sell.

        As I said before what I have found in my trading is that pot at the end of the rainbow. And it's not that pot that Walrus carries under his shirt...;-) It is hiding in plain sight and yet most cannot see it. It is like having 3D glasses in a 2D world. Few can see what I and a few others see. It is what it is.

        Thank you in your own inimitable way to tell me to wake up and die right. I appreciate your concern. I have gotten to the point where I find great joy in discovering these new nuggets, again lying in plain sight that most folks walk by and shrug their shoulders. Let me tell you of another I just discoverded tonight.

        How would you like to trade a 100% monthly historical winner. That's right. Every month in its brief 13 month monthly dividend life it has returned a winner(cont)...

    • Second paragraph, first line should add..."""after this "conditioning" period, [and receive no reward]."""

    • (cont)...

      and a random differing number of pulls each stimulus cycle was needed to receive the reward. Then the reward was stopped. Extinction was much slower. IOW, the monkey kept pulling the lever in hopes of a reward which was no longer coming. Hmmm, can we begin to see how trader's buying/selling habits are influenced by their conditioning? Do you know once extinction began and the monkey started to get a clue that the reward was not probably going to come again how many rewards it took to get the monkey back to pulling the lever at the old frequency rate? Yep, just once.

      Can you guess what happened when they rewarded the monkey on every pull of the lever until he was conditioned to receive a reward on every pull, and then went to intermittent reward? Yep, extinction went through the roof. He gave up!!

      So here is the deal. Most traders are about the same as that monkey. Sorry, that's just the way it is. We get our series of losses with a hit(reward) every once in awhile and we keep pulling the lever for that sure reward coming if we just pull that lever enough times. Vegas counts on this very same thing. Watch as social security folks are cashing their checks at the race track in hopes of that possible chance reward...just one more pull of the lever, they hope.

      In contrast, you have a model like Glad returning over 80% wins on all of the SS and over 90% on three of the six and over 96% on JTP (one losing month out of the last 29), and extinction takes over and we quit. This is exactly why I don't have to worry about people stealing my work as some have cautioned. "Stealing!!", I reply,"they'll be using it to line their bird cages after their first loss"....;-)

      Regards,

      DocReits

 
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