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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • slegermark slegermark May 1, 2013 10:35 AM Flag

    AGNC spread indications. Treasurys (TLT +0.7%) make new YTD lows in yield, the 10-year at 1.64%, the long bond at 2.84%.

    Positive and negative. Yield seekers will look to div payers.
    AGNC core income comes under pressure.

    Big across the board selloff , but the volume is not convincing.
    Economic positives: New Orders rose to 52.3 vs. 51.4 previously and Production moved to 53.5 from 52.2. The weakest numbers in the report are Inventories at 46.5 from 49.5 and Customers' Inventories at 44.5 from 47.5 - both suggesting a restocking is necessary.

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    • ...also with regard to spreads, it appears we're almost back to Q4 levels. I'm guessing this is mostly on the recent Japanese QE, plus European affairs, such as they are these days.

    • This is a reaction to DeMarco leaving. Obama has been a proponent of loan forgiveness and there has always been some fear that when DeMarco leaves, there will be some movement in the area of "completely forgiving (certain) loans".

      I think it is just panic, and little more. There's a lot in the way of being able to just "forgive housing loans" and with house prices trending the right direction I'm guessing there would be focus elsewhere by the administration (debt forgiveness is a topic from 2 years ago, today we talk about N.Korea, guns, Obamacare implementation detials and the like).


    • Hey slegemark, did you catch the ADP jobs number?
      It was a bit light.

      If employment slows, it seems the fed will hold short term rates low for longer whcih is good for mreits.

      Otherwise though Q2 might not be pretty.
      Seems like it will be more of the same from Q3/Q4 last year.

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