I think a dividend cut is almost assured. Will AGNC recover? Probably. My fear now is a big time secondary before the next ex-div date. If others agree, maybe its worth sitting out buying any more until after the end of Q2.
It will depend on what they do with the TBA's probably.
If MBS prices hold, they will do pretty good in Q2 with the TBA's.
At some point when the fed gets out of the MBS business they either need to stop the dollar roll (TBA) or switch to selling the dollar roll.
If they don't they are going to get killed.
The bold investors aka gamblers who bought AGNC cheap at yesterday's after market when it dropped some 8.2% or bought it earlier today when it dropped to 30.35 and sold it at 31.90, then bought it back at closing at around 30.60 will make a killing today. However, with its recent reduced NAV of 28.93 and a great possibility of its dividend being reduced, I will not try to buy any at its current price until it drops further. Now of course it may bounce back, well.....