Well I've read all of your opinions for weeks. Listened to all of your numbers crunching. Debated on both sides of the argument. I've come to the conclusion that none of you really know much about what you're talking about, and have no ability to explain events. I post silly stuff, and often ignorant stuff because I don't know much about math, the stock market and investing. But, it seems I'm just as accurate as most of you. I wish you all the very best of luck.
events are tough to explain. mainly because there are something like 8 to 20 million shares that trade every day. not always the same shares.
that is what makes a market. if 100% of investors went only on fundamentals, a price would be discovered, and then it would stay there. until something that impacted fundamentals came along. ditto technical. ditto value. ditto news. etc.
not only that, a hot day in some other stock can make AGNC sell off as people look for cash to play the other.
sometimes you just have to go with your gut, plus everything you can learn about a stock or a sector, plus everything you can detect from the Fed's flatulence. you can even bring in phases of the moon.
what is certain, for now, is that sometime in july AGNC will pay a buck and a nickel to those who are shareholders of record later in June.
today's Fed announcement probably PO's half of the market players. rest assured that the market only has a memory that extends backwards in time for about 2 seconds. about the time it takes to click buy or sell. the dividend run begins now.
You're correct on most counts. However, the one truth of the market is that no one can predict outcomes. Thus, when you invest or trade, it is without knowing what the results will be. You may believe you know where things are going, but you don't. However, time is almost always on the side of the investor (this is easily verifiable through backtesting). Watching the market day-to-day is likely to generate far more trading errors than simply letting things develop. And, of course, many people when they've made a decision defend it to the death, whether it turns out right or wrong, which you see a lot on Yahoo boards.