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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • instantwinbutton instantwinbutton Nov 26, 2013 7:28 PM Flag

    Huge sell off coming tomorrow for AGNC and NLY

    Will drop $1 on no news. HTS will go up or be somewhat flatish. Just the way things are. Fear is out there and it's not going to stop until the great taper has come and past us. Fed bond buying program was a complete #$%$ up.

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    • How does it feel to look stupid? Shorty?

    • Yikes!!!..Are you always this wrong??...I can only imagine how stupid you must feel right about now...LOL

    • Clyde, the Fed buying program is the only thing keeping the economy going. It sure isn't your tea party friends.

      • 2 Replies to walrathcraig846
      • You should double down, it is time for you to invest all your money into AGNC, do it.

      • You keep believing QE is the only thing keeping the economy going. All of you are deluding yourselves into denying the obvious which is interest rates are being adjusted from near zero to a higher level, closer to something referred to as a "market rate" interest rate.

        How many of you have ridden Mreits down the hill to the point where it will take a multiple of years to recover lost capital in the form of dividend income that BTW is going to be reduced next quarter and probably the quarter after next?

        False belief systems and all of you denying where we are at in the interest rate cycle and yes it is a cycle and we are now moving from trough rates to a higher market rate.... has resulted in you being snookered but good. Smart money who understood AGNC's first quarter results were the beginning of a nightmare scenario. Smart money also understood why NLY was starting to de-lever and reduce dividends over a year ago... the smart money be gone and that has left to dumb money to rationalize why they should keep watching their capital erode and getting your faces torn off.

    • IWB--you really are just fear mongering based on what appears to be a technical volume spike across many stocks likely related to the MSCI rebalancing (as per Bloomberg). There was nothing fundamental today whatsoever. Fear is out there but needs to be substantiated at some point and is more than reflected in the valuation. AGNC's portfolio is fairly defensive and highly hedged. Leverage has been reduced as has extension risk. The stock sells at 80% of current BV and yet has a liquid portfolio that it can monetize quickly. It will be buying back stock aggressively. The dividend and the big discount to BV provides a meaningful offset to any moderate potential BV decline when the Fed does taper.

      You keep talking your HTS book like it will totally decouple from other MREITs. Last time I checked HTS has a positive duration gap, 8X leverage, and has 8% downside sensitivity to BV to a 100 bps rate increase. If rates spike HTS' illiquid ARM book will sell-off as well.

      AGNC is the better bet here.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to oldschoolbuilder
      • Good common sense - Thank-you. If everyone would look at the charts for yesterday they would learn a lot. Not only AGNC got hit at the end of the day, all of the market did. Just look at yesterday charts for just about anything.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Oldschool. You are talking about fundamentals. They don't matter anymore. No one cares about the sensitivity.. they only care about technicals. AGNC fell below $20 today. No one cares about anything else. They will sell it and sell it HARD. It's going to low $19's by days end. I understand your reasons, but the market does not care and it never will in the short term. HTS has no magic price to trade against. It's already $16.50's.. There is support at $16.50 especially so, but there are support all along the 16s... It is an NYSE stock and therefore won't #$%$ up like nasdaq stocks. Yes NLY is NYSE too but it will do better than AGNC tomorrow. AGNC will break down and crash. I am just fear mongering.. i am telling the truth.. when you see this stock attempt to take down $19 tomorrow I hope you think of me.

19.62-0.09(-0.46%)9:31 AMEDT