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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jan 16, 2014 3:24 PM Flag

    The ^VIX and the TVIX play

    The ^VIX volatility index uses the last 30 days of S&P data to calculate the volatility. This means that the higher stock market volatilities of late are being swamped out by the lower volatilities of preceding days. So if this keeps up I would expect the ^VIX to go higher as the lower volatility days become less and less a part of the average. Thus if the volatility starts to decline again in the future it would be creating a good TVIX short opportunity which is a 2X leverage ETF of the ^VIX. Since this ETF almost always loses money over time you never want to be long it unless you have a disdain for money. But it is good to keep an eye on when it might be peaking as these short opportunities are pretty low risk considering it's tendency for it to trend downward 90% of the time. Just don't short it before a market correction or you will get hammered.

    Go look at the TVIX 1 and 2 year charts. It's a complete no brainer. You will see what I mean. This play may take a few months to set up but if you are not looking for it to peak then you will probably miss it.

    Every single time I have shorted it I have made money. Not once have I lost. Ideal short opportunities apear about 3 to 4 times a year. Just wait for the ^VIX to peak and then look for it to start back down again. Lately it does not go above 20 very often but shorting below 20 requires more guts to hold when it keeps going up. But since TVIX always loses money long term any minor mistakes get corrected very quickly.

    Warning. If you short this before a major market correction you could severely regret it as it can go up as much as a factor of 4 so you have to understand what is driving the market so you know to stay away if a large move is on the horizon. I have no sense of such a large move right now. The news events right now do not indicate that this is the case.

    Keep in mind that the ^VIX always goes back down to between 10 and 15. So if you don't cover you will never lose.

19.91-0.04(-0.20%)11:30 AMEDT