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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 16, 2014 10:03 PM Flag

    Almost 1/17__dr chumps date

    Was that not dr chumps date for the crash or was it 1/14, or is it now +/- 6 months. Now raybans is 100% in cash__I believe he posted 30% last April. Gosh missing a portion of 2013 really adds to relative performance.

    We are still within the seasonally strongest period for general indexes__that seasonality has only positively skewed since the combination of IRAs/401Ks/403s etc.

    I monitor 6 primary causations of a BEAR market. Currently two of them are stretched (sentiment and valuation) the first is a stretch in advisor sentiment__retail investor cash levels still exhibit a 'show me' overhang from the 08 crisis. The 2nd is valuation__there are different valuation measures applied to indexes. Amatuers tend to coin in on the most published (Yahoo type sites). This ignores the fact that within the established S&P 500 ten sectors some sectors are influenced by cash flow not earnings__some sectors are influenced by equivalent forward debt restructuring payment rates. Some are influenced by regulatory events.

    The indexes cannot roll over (downward) without a relational negative trend within those ten sectors.

    While I would luv to have general indexes correct to a -7% to -10%__seasonality and the strength of the index sectors rotantial kcapital flows to sectors that are normally late cycle suggest corrections may still be capped at -3% to -5%.

    I have posted a number of times and I stick by it___learn to read the market(s)__do not try to tell a market where it will go__it will tell you.

    An equity index market trade(s) within a confluence__debt markets, forex markets, commodity markets and lastly central bank and IMF flows. Those two are mentioned last because ‘Purchasing Power Parity’ influence lessen(s) their intervention efforts.

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    • My last calculated date was January 2008, I unloaded everything and went 100% cash. I sold all my National City stock, huge amount, lost the 7% dividend, but I got $20 for the stock. A year and 3 mos. later the stock was $5 and went as low as $2. I also sold out of TCF bank stock, in the 30's it went to single digits a year later. I sold out my BAC in the low 40's, it went to $6. I sold out my CORS Corus Bank at $11 and 8.85, the high was $34 the year before, it went to .06/sh, the FDIC closed them. I sold my Midwest Bank Holding, MBHI, for $5 it went to .06/sh, FDIC closed them. I dumped my Tampa Electric at $22, it went to $8.75.

      But I went 100% cash by first week of Jan. 2008, I dumped these in 2007 leading up to Jan 2008, but in Feb. 2008 there was a rally and I looked kind of stupid, my calculations showed that Jan. was the time to get out, I was 30 days too soon, the was a small 3% rally in February. But I am glad I sold out the Trust Fund and went to cash, I saved my 75% principle loss, you can't subject yourself to principle loss, it is almost too hard to every make it back, it is devastating to you return performance. Look at BAC it rallied on good news yesterday to $18 a 4 year high, I sold that one at $42, it still is not even half back and they only pay .04/qtr dividend. They use to pay .40 something per quarter. I will stick with my calculations, the markets are overvalued across the board, this is good time to harvest your gains and put then in the storage silos, very similar to 2007-2008.

    • Damm, Wished you had posted eariler, I just added yesterday, Should have saved my money for beer.

      Sentiment: Sell

    • Doesn't matter he just moves the date. He's bound to hit one if he lives long enough.

    • sorry for the misspellings (purposeful??)

20.18+0.34(+1.71%)Oct 25 4:00 PMEDT