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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • mmichaelr mmichaelr Jan 31, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    GMT +12 to GMT 0 and then GMT -6_part1

    A decade and a half ago (or maybe two decades) an ex Deutsche Bundesbank (John Dessauer) official A decade and a half ago (or maybe two decades) an ex Deutsche Bundesbank (John Dessauer) official published research about what he coined the ‘First Hour and Half’ indicator. Along with Adrian Day, Douglas Casey and the infamous Jim Rogers__John exposed__brain spanked me to understand the importance of a non US focal point. What John has always supplied is a view (reading) of world central banks and the IMF.

    The last time I conversed with John he abandoned updates and publishing of this indicator. He expressed the view that growth of globally electronic connected exchanges reduced the arbitrage value for this indicator. I understand that. I expressed to John; for myself (back then NOT having the coin to efficiently trade arbitrage) I had found considerable value for his indicator. It is about capital flows that either climb or fold.

    London markets are GMT 0. The first hour and half Eastern NYSE overlaps the GMT 0 markets. His indicator was based on recording the first hour and half NYSE volume and analyzing with moving averages and RSI. While I__back then did not have the capital or exchange function knowledge to arbritage__I used sector breakouts to trade the Fidelity Select sector funds. Back then they were trading priced at every hour click. Fidelity ended the hourly trading pricing maybe six years ago (made me mad).

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    • Part 2:

      I now watch/monitor the capital flow from GMT+12 thru the next cycle. I think (I have told him) John(s) concept has more value than ever before. You can watch the flows. But most importantly the flows between the Forex, commodity, debt, and of course equities markets can be data mined. The first three determine the last!!

      I programmed a Visual Basic routine that data mine(s) an Access database. I use a modification of John(s) concept to data alert__(volume multiplied by index price= money flow). It is a simple ‘exponential moving average’ and ‘relative strength’ indicator.

      If you have been watching__putting bids in index(s)__there has been an outsized influence from (and related pricing) capital flow from overseas. Most of the capital__ negative flow fails after the NYSE overlap. Then the market tries to retest those index levels (while traders at ‘Boni Vino’__power drinking lunch) But, there is important insight to be data mined from those capital flows from GMT+12 to NYSE.

      Even dr. chumps could learn from insight implied in these posts, The "Grand Marshall" from "Bozo's Circus" or the "Wizard Of Oz" is not going to produce market influence that will be the ‘Elliot Wave 5th blowoff’ The Kondratiev wave ‘super cycle’ is stilled constrained by an abstract (to you) concept__financials pros call it earning(s) growth!!!!!!!!!!!!

 
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