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Hollywood Entertainment (HLYW) Message Board

  • dnadesi dnadesi Jan 26, 2002 10:13 AM Flag


    Does anyone here remember the ticker for West Coast Entertainment? I thought it was WCEC. I bought it a long time ago at $2.00, watched it go down to under a $1.00, spike back up, then I got out at a little over $2.00. The last time I looked at it over 2 years ago it was around .50.

    Why ask? Good question! I wanted to use it as a comparison against HLYW. You see, I bought WCEC simply because it's book value was over $6.00. I thought this was a no brianer. However, When I took a stock investing class at the local college the teacher explained that book values are a good way to determine a stocks value but has VERY little if no meaning when dealing with entertainment co's.

    So as I was looking at HLYW and saw that their book value is a negative number, meaning at this point you coudn't give the company away because of all the red ink, I once again thought that my money would have virtually NO VALUE if invested in this company.

    After what I went through at WCEC I wouldn't even bought this stock at a $1.00. Congrats to those of you who did!

    I've been watching HLYW for the past couple of weeks and IMHO, the spikes are getting VERY VERY short. Meaning, the MM's are trying to determine if there is any more interest, (On the up side) and when they see equilibrium huge block orders will come in for sale.

    Those of you who bought while the stock was low and watched it run up, (And didn't sell) are now watching your profits weakened. And my guess is that you are hoping to see $16.00 again.

    That my friends is called GREED! There is still some time left before the big sell-off. And in that I mean earnings are scheduled for end of February. When they announce the numbers may look GREAT but, with a negative book value and up over 1000% TTM the stock will take a severe hit.

    Watch your profits my friends and don't be greedy in the market.

    So shall it be written, so shall it be done.


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    • Quite a good post, DNA, even if you are a "strong sell" person.

      You say those who are holding for $16 are "greedy". Quite possibly. Greed never wins.

      I thought the strong uptrend that went into November was a fantastic opportunity. (It was for me, anyway.) But it ended. Greed probably can't recognize that. There are still possibilities with HLYW, though it's no longer where I would choose to put new money.

      Now let's go beyond GREED. Let's hit FEAR, too. Okay, the bulls get enthusiastic beyond reason. What about the bashers who are consistenly preaching doom here? There is no reason that anyone should panic just because of bashers' dire forecasts. How much has VOD actually hurt HLYW? What about the "guaranteed" fall to $8 that was frequently posted in November? It never happened, and anyone reading such trash ought to have disregarded it from the beginning.

      HLYW is just a stock that, like any other, goes up and down. It's a stock, not a love/hate object. No one should expect to become a millionaire overnight, nor will anyone be wiped out.

      Extremist hypers and bashers represent GREED and FEAR in the market. Postings of fear and panic seem to dominate this board, just as they did in the move from $1 to $16. Ignore extremists. They have their own agendas. Those who preach panic are likely to want panic for the success of their own (short) investments. Objective discussion is the LAST thing they want.

      As for me, I've been on the sidelines for a couple of months. I see HLYW as slightly biased toward the down side, but not so badly as to give credibility to the extreme bashers. When the chart improves, I see no reason not to come back to HLYW.

      Stocks are cyclical by nature. They will go down, after which they WILL go up.

      Watch the stock, not the extremists (in either direction) here. Patience (not GREED) will be rewarded. Sell when the chart shows a downtrend, but don't let bashers keep you from reinvesting when the chart turns up one more time.

      • 1 Reply to doing_diligence
      • Thanks Doing_Diligence,

        I spoke with alittle emotion I guess because of what I've learned with WCEC. There are just so many stocks out there that get so pumped up, people forget to look at the fundamentals and invest with the masses.

        That's when small investors get burned! As for HLYW, they are so riddled with debt right now that unless the 10mil share offering is a HUGE success they will be scrabling to make their payments to the creditors. And even if it is 100% sold at say $10 or $11. the dilution alone will bring the price into single digits.

        I see oportunities like this to at the very least give my opinion on what i've learned in the market and my last post was to help people realize that any gain however small. (And diminishing) should be seized. Heck if the fundamentals improve then BUY BACK IN!

        Until HLYW cant get it's debt in check then IMHO the move up to $16 was all a part of "Chassing the masses"

        I still think the stock could reach $8.00/share. It's only 50% of the high, but more importantly 500% off of the low. And with the 10 mil share offering, dilution that comes with it and no strong-hold on the debt YET, even 500% is worth taking profit. Simply put the stock has gotten way ahead of itself.

        I look forward to your reply.