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  • iamabadboyy iamabadboyy Feb 26, 2012 7:04 PM Flag

    I'm back !

    What a long hiatus.

    Now that the dollar is not going away anytime soon, and inflation is not taking off, it sure looks like a "perfect storm" for almost any investment to do well this year. This from a long standing bear.

    A pullback is certainly going to happen soon, but don't expect a big drop.

    Election years are notorious for doing well, and I see no exception here.

    I think wave 3, the nasty deep wave, is not going to be seen for some time to come.

    Debt saturation has already happened and the world governments are trying to avert loss of confidence with lenders. It will be stalled but not going to work.

    My deflation,depression scenario will happen but most likely not till the very end of this year at the eariest. In the mean time expect yields to rise and talks of over heating to surface. Not a big move but enough to make people think we are once again having a heated economy.

    Stocks, gold, wheat, sugar, oil, REITS, bonds should all rise from here over the next 9 months.

    I believe the next short term drop will see a sharp rebound which will convince all that everything is well.

    If the market holds up till this December I buy a bear hedge fund and watch the money pour in.

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    • rlschroeder0711 May 3, 2012 6:13 PM Flag

      Who cares?

    • <<Election years are notorious for doing well, and I see no exception here.>>

      Think 2000 and 2008. Were they good years for bulls?

      • 1 Reply to paulohl
      • Yes they were bad ye3ars and the exception. They came off of multi-year big gains.

        Today we have a low P/E ratio, tame inflation, tame wage growth, upside earnings potential, improved economy and employment.

        I expect a 30 plus year. This permabear has bet on the long side with ETF's, making a 3 for 1 bet.

        Not to be discourages that I have seen the light. Next year is another matter. Debt defaults, deflation and a 50 percent haircut is my take for one year forward.

        For now, enjoy the show.

    • Rally is going to love this!

      After a decade of touting deflation is the end of the world I have changed my stance quite a bit. I see some dramatic cycles appear over the course of the next 8 years that will cause all sorts of havoc on anyone with a rigid dogmatic view of the world.

      This year should be a big one for almost all investments, gold included. in fact gold could double from here till end of year.

      I see 2013 as one of the worse years for almost everything. It should cause a 30 percent drop in equities and a 50 percent drop in commodities. Deflation will hit very hard, even as people are expecting hyper-inflation.

      The moves from there will be dramatic, both up and down, until around 2020.

      This is a big departure from my long standing views. I guess people do change.

      • 2 Replies to iamabadboyy
      • Well I must say I have been spot on! yes from a decade long perma-bear no less.

        Just broke upper end of trading range. Expect any pullback to be followed by a bigger surge.
        Earnings, economic recovery (domestic), and low rates. what more can one ask for.

        Rah, rah rally must be very confused. he thought that rates would be sky high by now, dollar tanking to oblivion, and the stock market in shambles. All for the benifit of G-O-L-D.

        Like I stated before the start of this year. Everything is going up, even gold. not like he expects but a win is a win.

        I also stated that before this sucks everyone in the talk on town is how high inflation might get. In reality it will go up but not by very much.

        The higher we go this year, say an 18 percent rise y-over-y, the greater the fall next.

        In 2013 I expect equities to take a 40 TO 50% HAIRCUT. i will be betting big on the ETF's that hedge 3 to 1 on the downside.

        Until then, enjoy the show.

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