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Tower Group International, L.Ş. Message Board

  • bengrahamman bengrahamman Oct 11, 2013 9:04 AM Flag

    TWGP - Soime thoughts

    Like all insurance companies, including Berkshire Hathaway, the reserves and actuarial assumptions used, could be subject to massive unexpected changes to policyholders and shareholders. The policy holder always comes first.

    One quick way to look at the valuation could be, increase shares outstanding to 10M, shareholders equity will be around $400M. If that occurred Market Cap would be same as shareholder equity for a share price of $4.

    Looking at TWGP, one could wonder if other respected insurers reserves and accruals of DAC are conservative enough. To give others insight into TWGP, they are a commercial insurance company who had Shareholder Equity of $1B. I think 30% of that or so was in Goodwill. They alerted shareholders that they expected an under reserving charge of $100M via an 8-k about a month ago. Well, they finally let their shareholders know a few days back that the under reserve charge would be about $365M, and a goodwill charge of $215M. Hence, Shareholder Equity is now reduced by an expected $585M. Fitch downgraded them the other day, AM Best yesterday, and like NWLI, they were rated A- by AM Best. You had insider selling at TWGP at much higher prices, yet reason was given as a margin call.

    I can't imagine that any analyst or good yahoo poster on TWGP (are there any?) has any answer to the investment dilemma at TWGP. One can clearly see this company as potentially worthless to shareholders, or I guess it is possible that TWGP could recover as a continuing entity, with hopes of a profitable future. The only people with answers, plausibilities, and true insight would only be those close to the bowels of the situation.